Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:05:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x2289…4485 crypto 472 markets active 0h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$14 (-1%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR70%break-even
Win rate70%332W / 140L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day23.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$33
14 days−$43
30 days−$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +70%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 153 -1.0% -10.4% 69% 69% -12.2%
≤30d 472 -2.5% -11.8% 70% 70% -11.3%
≤90d 472 -2.5% -11.8% 70% 70% -11.3%
all 472 -2.5% -11.8% 70% 70% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.8% 70% -11.3%
10% ← realistic here -20.2% 65% -19.8%
15% -27.9% 36% -27.5%
20% -35.0% 11% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses332 / 140
Open positions0
Markets (closed)472 / 472
History coverage20d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day23.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 472 Trades
no open positions (138 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$4 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$9 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$3 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$2 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$8 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $7 +$3 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $7 +$4 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $8 +$4 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 12 $8 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$7 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$5 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $8 +$3 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $12 +$7 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $8 +$3 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $8 +$3 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $8 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $6 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $6 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $6 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $6 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $13 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $8 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $6 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $6 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $7 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $7 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 31h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $7 40h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.80 · official $2.80 (match) · 806 history records