Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:03:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x2287…9004 politics 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 352d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$9 (+0%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate36%17W / 30L
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 68% +$7
politics 15% +$8
other 13% −$8
sports 2% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.4% -9.2% 33% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 29% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 10 -0.5% -9.9% 30% 0% -9.4%
all 47 -2.3% -11.6% 36% 2% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 2% -9.2%
10% -20.1% 2% -17.9%
15% -27.8% 2% -25.8%
20% -34.9% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

352d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses17 / 30
Open positions0
Markets (closed)47 / 47
History coverage352d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 47 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $166 +$2 +1%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $102 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 26 $90 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 25 $159 −$10 -6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 25 $339 +$14 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $111 −$4 -4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 24 $174 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 23 $64 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Jan 31 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 29 $165 +$3 +2%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 05 $16 $0 +2%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 19 $2 $0 -21%
Will CTBC Flying Oyster win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 14 $7 $0 +2%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 24 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 23 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Oct 14 $8 $0 +5%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 24 $8 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Aug 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 22 $7 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 20 $8 $0 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Aug 16 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Aug 15 $7 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 15 $8 $0 -1%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Aug 15 $7 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Aug 15 $15 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 14 $32 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Aug 14 $16 $0 -2%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? Aug 13 $6 $0 +6%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Aug 13 $7 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 12 $7 $0 -0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 12 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? Aug 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Lula da Silva in 2025? Aug 11 $13 +$6 +43%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 11 $5 $0 -0%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Aug 10 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 10 $17 $0 +0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto finish in 4th place at the 2025 F1 British Gran Aug 10 $16 $0 -2%
Will Iran enrich uranium to 90% before August? Aug 10 $161 +$5 +3%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 09 $2 −$1 -35%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 09 $2 $0 -4%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 06 $2 $0 -5%
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 06 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 06 $161 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $67 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $19 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $46 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $36 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $49 5h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $74 5h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $43 5h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $12 6h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $18 6h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $30 10h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $102 13h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $102 16h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $8 27d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $8 28d
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $90 28d
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $73 28d
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $17 28d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 62¢ $30 29d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 62¢ $34 29d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 62¢ $12 29d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 62¢ $40 29d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 62¢ $32 29d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 66¢ $53 29d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 66¢ $52 29d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 66¢ $53 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 98¢ $52 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 98¢ $20 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 97¢ $30 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 97¢ $45 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 97¢ $28 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 142 history records