Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:15:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
22 0x2284…b334 world 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 38d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge
! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$39 (+8%) realized +$35 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate59%20W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$50
7 days+$54
14 days+$62
30 days+$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 46% −$37
world 27% +$59
politics 11% −$5
other 8% +$3
crypto 6% $0
economics 1% +$1
tech 1% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +34.4% +21.6% 57% 43% +37.3%
≤30d 33 +25.9% +13.9% 61% 39% -3.1%
≤90d 34 +24.6% +12.7% 59% 38% -3.4%
all 34 +24.6% +12.7% 59% 38% -3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.7% 38% -3.4%
10% +1.9% 35% -12.7%
15% -7.9% 35% -21.1%
20% -16.9% 26% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late +32% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$11 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized+$35
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses20 / 14
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions7
Markets (closed)34 / 41
History coverage38d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Yes 60¢ 100¢ $12 $20 +$8 (+66%)
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? No 87¢ 100¢ $12 $14 +$2 (+14%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 31¢ 24¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-21%)
Will Atlanta Dream win the 2026 WNBA Finals? No 83¢ 88¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will Golden State Valkyries win the 2026 WNBA Finals? No 94¢ 93¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 92¢ 22¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-76%)
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Yes 30¢ 24¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? Jun 18 $12 +$32 +270%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $6 +$20 +332%
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 17? Jun 18 $6 $0 -0%
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 17 $6 −$3 -51%
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $6 +$2 +39%
Will no one dissent the June Fed decision? Jun 17 $6 +$1 +9%
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $12 +$6 +53%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $12 +$6 +47%
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $12 −$3 -27%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $6 +$1 +10%
Will Trump announce Chris Stewart as the next Director of National Int Jun 11 $6 $0 +1%
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary ele Jun 11 $6 $0 -2%
Will Trump praise Allah by June 30? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 07 $15 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Con Jun 06 $6 +$10 +158%
Will the Slovenian People’s Party (SLS) be part of the next Government Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Atto Jun 04 $5 $0 +7%
Will Donald Trump not announce a next United States Attorney General b Jun 04 $5 +$2 +42%
Another Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30? Jun 04 $6 −$6 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $20 $0 +0%
Will Alex Zdan be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Jersey? Jun 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $10 +$11 +107%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP? May 31 $10 +$14 +140%
Will Oklahoma City Thunder advance to the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap May 29 $6 +$4 +73%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 28 $18 +$68 +371%
Will Elena Rybakina win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 27 $115 −$115 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 26 $35 −$10 -28%
Will Trump attend his son's wedding? May 25 $5 $0 +4%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 21, 2026? May 21 $5 $0 +2%
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? May 18 $5 −$1 -20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $44 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 1h
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 17? SELL Yes 98¢ $6 6h
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 17? SELL Yes 98¢ $0 6h
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 17? SELL Yes 98¢ $0 6h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 31¢ $0 7h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 34¢ $0 7h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL No 10¢ $2 7h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL No 15¢ $1 7h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL No 15¢ $0 7h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 92¢ $6 7h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY No 22¢ $6 8h
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL No 53¢ $8 8h
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $6 8h
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 30¢ $0 8h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $6 8h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? BUY Yes 29¢ $6 8h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $6 8h
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 38¢ $6 9h
Will no one dissent the June Fed decision? BUY Yes 91¢ $6 12h
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? BUY No 90¢ $6 12h
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? BUY No 85¢ $6 12h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 8¢ $2 12h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 30¢ $6 13h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 65¢ $6 13h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 56¢ $6 13h
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June 2026? BUY No 22¢ $2 18h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 69¢ $24 19h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 43¢ $6 19h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 57¢ $6 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.07 · official $53.07 (match) · 202 history records