Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:09:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

22
0x2281…06fd
crypto · 219 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$89 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$88 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$49
Realized−$88
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses62 / 134
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions23
Markets (closed)196 / 219
History coverage11d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day46.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 23 History 196 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$29
7 days−$17
14 days−$88
30 days−$88
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 33¢ 36¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? No 90¢ 90¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 31¢ 24¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-24%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Yes 26¢ 55¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+110%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Yes 37¢ 75¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+103%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 13¢ 24¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+81%)
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? No 38¢ 64¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+67%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by June 30, 2026? Yes 16¢ 24¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+47%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in June? No 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in June? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? No 35¢ 33¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by June 30, 2026? Yes 28¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-20%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 27¢ 21¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-20%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Ronaldo 57¢ 40¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-31%)
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? No 41¢ 12¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-72%)
Will Trump speak to Friedrich Merz in June? No 7¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-80%)
Will Trump speak to Keir Starmer in June? No 8¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-92%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 13 $21 +$18 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $31 +$45 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $31 +$15 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $13 −$7 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $47 +$44 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $37 −$5 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 13 $17 −$9 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $37 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 13 $31 +$16 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $31 −$4 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 13 $14 −$7 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $32 +$29 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$3 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$4 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$12 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $31 −$13 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 11 $16 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 11 $21 −$5 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 11 $29 +$15 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$10 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 11 $22 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$9 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 11 $22 −$3 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $9 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 11 $9 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$8 +756%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 11 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 11 $15 +$11 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$1 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 89% −$51
world 8% −$9
politics 2% −$14
other 1% −$12
sports 0% $0
tech 0% +$1
finance 0% −$2
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $11 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $19 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 30m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-32.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 142 -17.1% -25.0% 32% 29% -7.2%
≤30d 196 -25.1% -32.2% 32% 29% -13.2%
≤90d 196 -25.1% -32.2% 32% 29% -13.2%
all 196 -25.1% -32.2% 32% 29% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover46.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -32.2% 29% -13.2%
10% ← realistic here -38.7% 27% -21.5%
15% -44.6% 23% -29.1%
20% -50.0% 20% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.13 · official $49.13 (match) · 564 history records