Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:33:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x2280…c978 crypto 451 markets active 1h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate60%269W / 182L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day11.3pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$55
7 days+$55
14 days+$55
30 days−$621
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$386
other 4% −$115
sports 3% −$205
world 1% +$108
politics 0% −$50
tech 0% +$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +53.3% +38.7% 100% 100% +38.7%
≤30d 34 -28.7% -35.5% 44% 44% -32.4%
≤90d 451 -1.3% -10.7% 60% 57% -10.9%
all 451 -1.3% -10.7% 60% 57% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 57% -10.9%
10% -19.2% 53% -19.5%
15% -27.0% 45% -27.2%
20% -34.2% 35% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$77 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses269 / 182
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)451 / 451
History coverage50d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 451 Trades
no open positions (123 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 29 $51 +$33 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 29 $51 +$21 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 07 $48 −$48 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $304 −$304 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 07 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 07 $27 −$26 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 07 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 07 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 07 $51 +$29 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 07 $113 +$49 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 07 $51 +$35 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 07 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 07 $91 +$78 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 07 $51 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 06 $25 −$24 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 06 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 04 $48 −$47 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 04 $51 +$26 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 04 $52 +$38 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 04 $46 +$13 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 03 $52 −$40 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 03 $51 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 02 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 02 $52 +$44 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 02 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 02 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 02 $103 +$89 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 01 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 01 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 01 $103 +$83 +81%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $200 +$128 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 31 $40 −$39 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 31 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 31 $51 +$35 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 30 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 30 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 30 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 30 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $201 +$65 +32%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $511 −$54 -11%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $197 −$194 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 30 $51 −$49 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 30 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 30 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET May 30 $16 +$9 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET May 30 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 30 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 30 $103 +$66 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 30 $103 +$58 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 30 $104 −$100 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $48 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $52 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $27 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $51 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $51 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $51 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $162 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $113 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $51 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $91 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $51 22d
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main BUY Belal Muhammad 50¢ $304 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $25 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $52 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $47 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $51 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $52 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $46 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $8 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $3 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $52 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $51 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $51 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $52 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $103 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $104 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 888 history records