Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:17:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x227e…a6ff sports 223 markets active 1h ago coverage 168d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%13W / 209L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 25% −$4
sports 25% −$4
politics 19% −$3
economics 11% −$2
crypto 6% −$1
world 6% −$1
culture 6% −$1
tech 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.8% -10.2% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 3 -0.7% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.1%
all 222 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses13 / 209
Open positions1
Markets (closed)222 / 223
History coverage168d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 222 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 95¢ 94¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $26 $0 -1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 23 $37 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? May 15 $33 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 03 $111 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? Mar 03 $150 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 03 $27 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 03 $32 $0 -1%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 03 $471 −$1 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Mar 03 $340 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 03 $33 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 03 $231 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 03 $140 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 03 $220 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 03 $90 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Mar 03 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 03 $158 $0 -0%
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 03 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Mar 03 $228 $0 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 03 $81 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 03 $100 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 03 $31 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Mar 03 $123 $0 -0%
Will Jordan Spieth win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 03 $40 $0 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Mar 03 $69 $0 -0%
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 03 $222 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 03 $107 $0 -0%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 03 $2 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? Mar 03 $76 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 03 $84 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Mar 03 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 03 $41 $0 -0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 03 $30 $0 -0%
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Mar 03 $34 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Mar 02 $32 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 02 $158 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 02 $51 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 02 $125 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 02 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Mar 02 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 02 $105 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 02 $124 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 02 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 02 $39 $0 -0%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 02 $43 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 02 $126 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 02 $35 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 02 $81 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 02 $67 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Mar 02 $35 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $34 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $26 11d
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $26 11d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 97¢ $36 24d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $37 24d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? SELL No 96¢ $33 32d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? BUY No 96¢ $33 32d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $31 105d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $31 105d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 97¢ $34 105d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 97¢ $34 105d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? SELL No 97¢ $27 105d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 98¢ $27 105d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March SELL No 95¢ $32 105d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY No 96¢ $32 105d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $37 105d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $37 105d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? SELL No 96¢ $38 105d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? BUY No 96¢ $38 105d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? SELL No 97¢ $33 105d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 97¢ $33 105d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 93¢ $40 105d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 94¢ $40 105d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $35 105d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $35 105d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 91¢ $32 105d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 92¢ $32 105d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 92¢ $6 105d
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 97¢ $26 105d
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 98¢ $26 105d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.28 · official $33.28 (match) · 824 history records