Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:08:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

22
0x227b…76f9
politics · 269 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$2 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$20 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$48
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses81 / 129
Open positions60
Markets (closed)210 / 269
History coverage3d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day1087.6
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit79%
Chart Positions 60 History 210 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$20
14 days+$20
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of June? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 12 $0 $0 -4%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $9 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 12 $208 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $52 by end of June? Jun 12 $11 $0 -1%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $8 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $433 $0 +0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $175 $0 +0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $10 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? Jun 12 $9 $0 +1%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Australia? Jun 12 $4 $0 -1%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $195 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $98 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $16 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $249 $0 -0%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $104 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $4 $0 -2%
Will Israel strike 14 countries in 2026? Jun 12 $229 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $21 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? Jun 12 $3 $0 +1%
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $116 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 12 $369 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $105 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $15 $0 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 12 $7 $0 -1%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $189 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $299 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $6 $0 +1%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 12 $9 $0 +1%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $7 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $114 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 12 $336 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $302 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $102 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 12 $15 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $15 $0 -1%
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $103 $0 +0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $290 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 12 $105 +$3 +2%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 12 $10 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $800B and $900B at market close on Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $121 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $8 $0 -1%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jun 12 $21 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 39% +$21
other 33% $0
culture 10% −$3
world 9% +$4
economics 6% −$1
tech 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $2 13m
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2 14m
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1 14m
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on De SELL No 99¢ $1 14m
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $2 14m
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1 14m
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1 14m
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $2 14m
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $2 14m
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $96 14m
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $2 15m
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $96 15m
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $0 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $52 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $0 1h
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on De BUY No 99¢ $2 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2 1h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $3 1h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $83 1h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $2 1h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1 1h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $83 1h
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $0 1h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $0 1h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $2 1h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $2 1h
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $2 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $2 1h
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $0 1h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1 1h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 210 +2.2% -7.5% 39% 5% -9.4%
≤30d 210 +2.2% -7.5% 39% 5% -9.4%
≤90d 210 +2.2% -7.5% 39% 5% -9.4%
all 210 +2.2% -7.5% 39% 5% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1087.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.5% 5% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -16.4% 3% -18.1%
15% -24.5% 3% -26.0%
20% -31.9% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.45 · official $40.49 · 3500 history records