Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T18:12:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

22
0x227a…1a18
crypto · 153 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$7 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2 · open −$6
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$76
Realized−$2
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses113 / 31
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)144 / 153
History coverage97d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%
Chart Positions 9 History 144 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 3 Curaçao? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Curaçao? No 98¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 2 Curaçao? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 3 Japan? No 99¢ 98¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Solana reach $200 by December 31, 2026? Yes 17¢ 8¢ $12 $5 −$7 (-56%)
Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026? No 15¢ 17¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C or higher on June Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Exact Score: Australia 3 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Spread: Australia (-2.5) Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Haiti 3 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Exact Score: Haiti 3 - 0 Scotland? Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Haiti 2 - 0 Scotland? Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Exact Score: Haiti 3 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Spread: Haiti (-2.5) Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 3 Morocco? Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Qatar 3 - 0 Switzerland? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Qatar 2 - 0 Switzerland? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Spread: Qatar (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Spread: Qatar (-2.5) Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 3 - 2 Czechia? Jun 12 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Rainbow Six Siege: Fury vs PSYKN Company (BO1) - Asia Pacific League A Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $20 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $10 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $10 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 68% −$15
other 16% +$5
weather 8% $0
sports 7% +$1
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 3 Japan? BUY No 99¢ $10 3m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $10 4m
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner BUY ex-RUBY 100¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Curaçao? BUY No 98¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 3 Curaçao? BUY No 100¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 2 Curaçao? BUY No 100¢ $10 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $10 11h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $10 11h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $10 12h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C or higher on June BUY No 100¢ $10 12h
Exact Score: Australia 3 - 0 Türkiye? BUY No 99¢ $10 14h
Spread: Australia (-2.5) BUY Türkiye 99¢ $10 14h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 BUY No 100¢ $10 14h
Exact Score: Haiti 3 - 2 Scotland? BUY No 98¢ $10 17h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $10 17h
Spread: Haiti (-2.5) BUY Scotland 99¢ $10 17h
Exact Score: Haiti 2 - 0 Scotland? BUY No 98¢ $10 17h
Exact Score: Haiti 3 - 1 Scotland? BUY No 98¢ $10 17h
Exact Score: Haiti 3 - 0 Scotland? BUY No 99¢ $10 17h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $10 17h
Spread: Qatar (-2.5) BUY Switzerland 100¢ $10 29h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $10 29h
Exact Score: Qatar 2 - 0 Switzerland? BUY No 99¢ $10 29h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 3 Morocco? BUY No 98¢ $10 29h
Exact Score: Qatar 3 - 0 Switzerland? BUY No 99¢ $10 29h
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Brazil 99¢ $10 29h
Spread: Qatar (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 99¢ $10 29h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 99¢ $10 2d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 53 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 54 +1.3% -8.3% 100% 2% -8.3%
all 144 -0.4% -9.9% 78% 1% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 1% -9.7%
10% -18.5% 1% -18.3%
15% -26.4% 1% -26.2%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.37 · official $76.37 (match) · 319 history records