Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T00:50:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x2279…c682 crypto 399 markets active 1h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate80%317W / 81L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$27
14 days−$9
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% +$3
politics 13% −$1
sports 10% −$4
other 10% −$1
world 7% −$1
economics 1% $0
culture 0% +$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -38.3% -44.1% 38% 38% -31.2%
≤30d 49 -7.0% -15.9% 73% 29% -10.5%
≤90d 214 -1.6% -11.0% 85% 7% -9.7%
all 398 -2.1% -11.4% 80% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 5% -9.6%
10% -19.9% 3% -18.3%
15% -27.7% 2% -26.2%
20% -34.7% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses317 / 81
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)398 / 399
History coverage141d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 398 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves San Francisco Giants 38¢ 48¢ $5 $7 +$1 (+25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $10 −$9 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +22%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $7 $0 -5%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +15%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $5 −$3 -58%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $15 +$4 +24%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5) Jun 11 $5 +$3 +65%
Spread: Spurs (-15.5) Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 11 $6 −$6 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-7.5) Jun 10 $10 +$11 +108%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $10 +$2 +17%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5 Jun 10 $5 +$2 +40%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 09 $6 +$3 +49%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $9 −$9 -99%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $9 +$3 +38%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5 Jun 07 $5 +$3 +67%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 07 $6 +$10 +158%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5 Jun 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 06 $5 +$1 +13%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 05 $7 −$7 -99%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 05 $10 +$15 +146%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 04 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3PM ET Jun 02 $13 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9PM ET Jun 02 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5PM ET Jun 01 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10PM ET Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $7 $0 +0%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5 Jun 01 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11PM ET May 30 $13 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9PM ET May 30 $16 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11PM ET May 29 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5PM ET May 29 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3PM ET May 28 $19 $0 +1%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea May 26 $8 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3AM ET May 20 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1AM ET May 20 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9PM ET May 20 $14 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4PM ET May 20 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7AM ET May 19 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3AM ET May 19 $13 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7AM ET May 18 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3AM ET May 18 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10PM ET May 18 $14 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9PM ET May 18 $14 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6AM ET May 17 $11 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 38¢ $6 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 25¢ $4 2h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 20¢ $5 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 30¢ $12 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL No 60¢ $6 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 63¢ $7 2d
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 63¢ $5 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $5 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 86¢ $6 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $5 4d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL No 23¢ $2 5d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $5 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 53¢ $10 5d
Spread: Spurs (-15.5) BUY Spurs 47¢ $5 5d
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 60¢ $5 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 84¢ $5 5d
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) BUY Spurs 66¢ $6 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 BUY Over 56¢ $5 5d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 64¢ $5 6d
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) BUY Washington Nationals 82¢ $5 6d
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-7.5) BUY Phoenix Mercury 48¢ $10 6d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 85¢ $10 6d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 71¢ $5 7d
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) BUY Athletics 67¢ $6 7d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 69¢ $9 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? SELL No 72¢ $12 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? BUY No 52¢ $9 8d
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 59¢ $5 9d
Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 68¢ $0 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.80 · official $6.80 (match) · 1589 history records