Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:17:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5

score

22 0x2278…a72c other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$18 (-1%) realized −$129 · open +$111

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip

Net edge-43%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$147per market

Trades / day3.8pace

Fees−$11est.

Kalshi-fit40%portable

Net worth$1,204now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-41.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	-34.8%	-41.0%	0%	0%	-41.1%
≤30d	3	-34.8%	-41.0%	0%	0%	-41.1%
≤90d	3	-34.8%	-41.0%	0%	0%	-41.1%
all	3	-34.8%	-41.0%	0%	0%	-41.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.8 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-41.0%	0%	-41.1%
10%	-46.7%	0%	-46.8%
15%	-51.8%	0%	-51.9%
20%	-56.5%	0%	-56.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -35% too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -35% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

— vs −$41 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage

Net worth$1,204

Realized−$129

Unrealized+$111

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 3

Est. fees paid−$11

Open positions7

Markets (closed)3 / 10

History coverage8d

Avg bet$147

Trades / day3.8

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 7 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	4¢	5¢	$450	$460	+$10 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	16¢	18¢	$186	$214	+$27 (+15%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$129	$170	+$41 (+32%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	3¢	$92	$128	+$36 (+39%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	11¢	10¢	$99	$98	−$1 (-1%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$70	$73	+$3 (+4%)
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$66	$62	−$4 (-6%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 17	$57	−$16	-27%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Jun 11	$127	−$71	-56%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Jun 11	$165	−$36	-22%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$13	1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	3¢	$30	1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	2¢	$42	1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$87	3d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	BUY Yes	1¢	$7	4d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$102	5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$26	5d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$14	5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$6	5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$56	5d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	BUY Yes	1¢	$8	5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$103	5d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	5¢	$185	5d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$31	5d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	5¢	$103	5d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$6	5d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	4¢	$21	5d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$7	5d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$8	5d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$9	5d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$26	5d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$26	5d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$32	5d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	4¢	$154	5d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	SELL Yes	18¢	$57	5d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	SELL No	17¢	$129	5d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	BUY Yes	1¢	$53	6d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$17	6d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	BUY Yes	38¢	$127	6d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$51	6d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,203.59 · official $1,204.10 (match) · 37 history records