Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:16:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x2278…9b70 world 91 markets active 2h ago coverage 525d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate38%34W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% +$3
other 20% −$2
sports 14% −$10
politics 12% −$2
economics 3% $0
crypto 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -1.7% -11.0% 29% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 25 -5.3% -14.3% 36% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 83 -3.6% -12.8% 37% 2% -9.5%
all 89 -5.5% -14.5% 38% 2% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 2% -9.8%
10% -22.7% 2% -18.4%
15% -30.2% 1% -26.3%
20% -37.0% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

525d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses34 / 55
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)89 / 91
History coverage525d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 81¢ 80¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 42¢ 52¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $39 +$2 +5%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 21 $36 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $25 −$1 -3%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $38 +$1 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $37 $0 -1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $84 −$1 -2%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $5 −$1 -12%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $86 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $26 −$1 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $32 −$2 -8%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $85 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $45 +$1 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $49 +$1 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $43 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $4 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 05 $74 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $43 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $101 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $77 +$1 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $81 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $41 +$2 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $83 −$2 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $16 −$3 -18%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $7 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 24 $26 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $44 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 21 $51 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $2 +$1 +43%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $84 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 18 $46 +$1 +2%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $3 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $15 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $44 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $60 +$2 +3%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $3 $0 -4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 15 $41 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 14 $41 $0 +0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $1 $0 +23%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $40 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $174 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $68 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $4 $0 -8%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $48 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $157 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $93 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $6 $0 +2%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 20 $29 −$1 -4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 20 $45 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 89¢ $41 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 85¢ $7 4h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 85¢ $32 4h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $36 14h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $36 15h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 84¢ $34 44h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 84¢ $2 44h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $36 46h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $11 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $11 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $14 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $11 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 89¢ $39 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 87¢ $38 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $37 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $37 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $40 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $41 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $42 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $42 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $42 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $42 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 29¢ $25 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 30¢ $12 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 30¢ $11 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 72¢ $24 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.13 · official $0.80 · 360 history records