Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:39:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x2274…415a world 89 markets active 1h ago coverage 532d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate35%30W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% −$3
other 24% −$12
sports 12% +$2
politics 10% −$2
economics 8% $0
crypto 1% $0
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.2% -9.3% 20% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 34 -6.8% -15.7% 26% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 82 -2.0% -11.4% 34% 1% -9.6%
all 86 -3.2% -12.4% 35% 1% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 1% -9.8%
10% -20.8% 1% -18.4%
15% -28.4% 1% -26.3%
20% -35.4% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

532d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses30 / 56
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)86 / 89
History coverage532d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 95¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $85 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $20 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 22 $47 $0 -0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $40 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $39 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 20 $10 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $56 $0 -0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $44 +$1 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $120 +$1 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $34 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $43 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $40 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $42 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $44 −$1 -3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 09 $125 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $34 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $130 +$1 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $88 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $53 $0 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $37 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $17 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $69 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $38 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $34 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $9 $0 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $50 −$2 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $9 −$2 -20%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 31 $8 −$1 -15%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $41 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 27 $105 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $95 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $8 −$1 -14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $12 $0 +3%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 23 $45 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 20 $46 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 18 $88 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 18 $2 $0 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 16 $1 $0 -10%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $2 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 15 $3 $0 +2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $2 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $43 $0 -1%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $48 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $120 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $17 $0 +1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $43 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $117 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $45 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $40 20h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $5 20h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $45 22h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $39 29h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $2 29h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $29 33h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $11 33h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $20 37h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $20 41h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $29 44h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $12 44h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $40 47h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $2 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $33 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $33 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 24¢ $10 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $32 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $7 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $40 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $9 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 34¢ $3 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 34¢ $3 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 34¢ $0 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 34¢ $6 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.47 · official $44.94 · 400 history records