Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:05:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x2272…7525 crypto 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 262d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$202 (-1%) realized −$202 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate76%25W / 8L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$741per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$113now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 43% −$191
politics 32% −$5
economics 12% −$3
other 12% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 5 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 33 -8.8% -17.5% 76% 0% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 0% -10.2%
10% -25.4% 0% -18.8%
15% -32.6% 0% -26.6%
20% -39.2% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$28 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

262d coverage
Net worth$113
Realized−$202
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses25 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)33 / 36
History coverage262d
Avg bet$741
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 100¢ 99¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-1%)
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $33 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in May? Jun 01 $63 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 9? May 09 $35 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in April? May 08 $50 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.20 in March? Apr 28 $55 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 19? Mar 27 $30 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027? Mar 19 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 1? Mar 19 $46 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Feb 28 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Feb 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Feb 28 $110 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 12? Feb 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on January 27? Feb 11 $72 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 18? Jan 27 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 11? Jan 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? Jan 11 $35 $0 +0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 11 $38 $0 +0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Dec 31 $3,255 −$3 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 31 $3,250 −$3 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 31 $3,266 −$3 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 31 $3,273 −$3 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 19? Dec 27 $45 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on December 15? Dec 19 $45 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 3? Dec 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on November 2? Dec 02 $45 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $108,000 on October 29? Nov 02 $35 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on October 24? Oct 29 $45 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on October 21? Oct 24 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 07 $8,128 −$12 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Oct 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $126k in October? Oct 07 $2,177 +$17 +1%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 06 $1,904 +$2 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $40 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $33 26d
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in May? BUY No 100¢ $63 42d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $35 47d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in April? BUY No 100¢ $50 57d
Will XRP reach $3.20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $55 90d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 19? BUY No 100¢ $30 98d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 1? BUY No 100¢ $46 116d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 117d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 117d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $110 117d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 12? BUY No 100¢ $30 133d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on January 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $36 149d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on January 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $36 149d
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027? BUY No 100¢ $40 156d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $35 156d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $38 156d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 158d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 165d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $3,252 175d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $3,255 175d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 100¢ $3,247 175d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $3,250 176d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $3,263 176d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $3,266 176d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? SELL No 99¢ $3,270 176d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $3,273 176d
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $35 177d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $38 180d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $45 188d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $112.71 · official $112.71 (match) · 255 history records