Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:49:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x2271…16a0 weather 92 markets active 2h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$370 (-8%) realized −$367 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%42W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$53
7 days+$39
14 days−$26
30 days−$451
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$1,208
other 32% +$824
weather 2% −$22
crypto 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-31.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +1.2% -8.4% 72% 72% +12.5%
≤30d 52 -7.4% -16.3% 63% 63% -44.4%
≤90d 77 -21.7% -29.2% 52% 52% -15.2%
all 87 -24.7% -31.9% 48% 48% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.9% 48% -17.7%
10% -38.4% 44% -25.5%
15% -44.4% 32% -32.7%
20% -49.8% 14% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -47% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$51 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$367
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses42 / 45
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions5
Markets (closed)87 / 92
History coverage114d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 22? No 69¢ 85¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+23%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 22? No 72¢ 67¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 22? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-93%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 21? No 57¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 21? No 65¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $66 +$33 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 21? Jun 22 $1 $0 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 20? Jun 22 $1 $0 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 20? Jun 22 $1 +$1 +95%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 21? Jun 21 $1 $0 +45%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 21? Jun 21 $1 +$1 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 21? Jun 21 $1 $0 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 21? Jun 21 $1 $0 +45%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 21? Jun 21 $1 $0 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $1 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $2 +$1 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 21? Jun 21 $1 $0 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 21? Jun 21 $1 +$1 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $3 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $3 +$1 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $1 $0 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 21? Jun 21 $1 $0 +20%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $36 +$16 +45%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $2 +$1 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 20? Jun 20 $3 +$1 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +58%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 20? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 20? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C or higher on June 20? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 20? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 21? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 21? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 20? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C or higher on June 21? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 21? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 10 $1 +$1 +105%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Jun 10 $1 $0 -7%
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN SOOPers - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $195 −$181 -93%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) May 30 $57 −$55 -96%
FC Ōsaka vs. Reilac Shiga: O/U 1.5 May 30 $101 −$101 -100%
Vegalta Sendai vs. Ventforet Kōfu: O/U 1.5 May 30 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: Just Players vs OG - Map 1 Winner May 30 $49 +$7 +14%
Will FC Tōkyō win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $128 −$112 -88%
Yokohama FC vs. RB Ōmiya Ardija: O/U 1.5 May 30 $100 +$30 +30%
Nara Club vs. Ōita Trinita: O/U 1.5 May 30 $97 +$54 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $99 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $66 3h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $10 9h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $52 23h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $36 25h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 22? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 32h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 22? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 32h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 22? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 32h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 21? BUY No 68¢ $1 35h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 21? BUY No 64¢ $1 35h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 22? BUY No 69¢ $1 35h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 22? BUY No 72¢ $1 35h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 20? BUY No 70¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 21? BUY No 79¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 21? BUY No 77¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 20? BUY No 70¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 20? BUY No 53¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C or higher on June 20? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 21? BUY No 68¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C or higher on June 20? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 20? BUY No 79¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 20? BUY No 62¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 20? BUY No 76¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 21? BUY No 65¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 21? BUY No 71¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 20? BUY No 66¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 21? BUY No 69¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 20? BUY No 67¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 21? BUY No 63¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 21? BUY No 76¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.20 · official $2.20 (match) · 214 history records