Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:35:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5

score

22 0x226f…4e44 crypto 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real

Total PnL +$16 (+10%) realized +$16 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip

Net edge-2%after slip

Net WR75%break-even

Win rate75%3W / 1L

Drawdown58%max

Avg bet$42per market

Trades / day7.0pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit75%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +75%

net ROI/market (all)+2.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+12.9%	+2.2%	75%	75%	+14.1%
≤30d	4	+12.9%	+2.2%	75%	75%	+14.1%
≤90d	4	+12.9%	+2.2%	75%	75%	+14.1%
all	4	+12.9%	+2.2%	75%	75%	+14.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover7.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+2.2%	75%	+14.1%
10%	-7.6%	75%	+3.2%
15%	-16.5%	50%	-6.8%
20%	-24.7%	25%	-15.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 43% · top 2 76% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +26% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +13% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$23 vs −$26 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×2.71 per $1 lost it wins $2.71

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$16

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)75%

Wins / losses3 / 1

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions0

Markets (closed)4 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$42

Trades / day7.0

Drawdown58%

Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 4 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	Jun 21	$41	+$30	+73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Jun 21	$26	−$26	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Jun 21	$51	+$17	+33%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$50	+$23	+46%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$70	1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	BUY Yes	57¢	$41	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	BUY Up	64¢	$26	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$68	10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	BUY Down	73¢	$25	10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	BUY Down	73¢	$25	10h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$50	22h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 9 history records