Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:07:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
22 0x226e…0b5e sports 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 69d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$1,065 (+86%) realized +$1,034 · open +$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +81% what you keep after slip
Net edge+81%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%6W / 4L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$113per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$483
14 days+$257
30 days+$257
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$1,080
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+80.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +413.8% +364.9% 100% 100% +364.9%
≤30d 6 +49.1% +34.9% 50% 50% +21.1%
≤90d 10 +100.0% +80.9% 60% 60% +70.8%
all 10 +100.0% +80.9% 60% 60% +70.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +80.9% 60% +70.8%
10% +63.6% 60% +54.5%
15% +47.8% 60% +39.5%
20% +33.3% 60% +25.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +89% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +100% · $-wt +89% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$246 vs −$106 · ×2.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.46 per $1 lost it wins $3.46
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$81
Realized+$1,034
Unrealized+$31
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses6 / 4
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage69d
Avg bet$113
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 31¢ 50¢ $50 $81 +$31 (+63%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $117 +$483 +414%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $204 −$200 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 07 $102 −$100 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 07 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs Jun 07 $41 +$48 +119%
MVP Fight Night: Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry Jun 07 $202 +$126 +62%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 16 $163 +$237 +146%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 16 $110 +$425 +388%
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Apr 12 $74 −$25 -34%
UFC 327: Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight, Main Ca Apr 12 $75 +$155 +206%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.45 · official $71.77 · 20 history records