Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:47:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
22 0x226d…7d90 tech 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 163d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL −$907 (-32%) realized −$901 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +25% what you keep after slip
Net edge+25%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$409per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$265now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$119
7 days+$119
14 days+$119
30 days+$119
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 79% −$1,132
tech 19% +$160
world 1% +$44
economics 1% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+25.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +76.1% +59.3% 100% 100% +59.3%
≤30d 1 +76.1% +59.3% 100% 100% +59.3%
≤90d 3 -8.0% -16.8% 33% 33% -47.3%
all 6 +38.6% +25.4% 67% 67% -41.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +25.4% 67% -41.3%
10% +13.4% 67% -46.9%
15% +2.4% 67% -52.0%
20% -7.6% 50% -56.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +39% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$566 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

163d coverage
Net worth$265
Realized−$901
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage163d
Avg bet$409
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes 70¢ 68¢ $271 $265 −$6 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 28 $157 +$119 +76%
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentar Apr 13 $1,131 −$1,131 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 06 $1,138 −$1 -0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 23 $110 +$46 +42%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Mar 01 $28 +$44 +156%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 28 $25 +$14 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $265.14 · official $265.14 (match) · 14 history records