Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:01:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
22 0x226d…5ed5 other 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$989 (+10%) realized +$366 · open +$623
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate60%21W / 14L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$274per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit28%portable
Net worth$1,660now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$146
7 days+$509
14 days+$509
30 days+$510
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% +$282
sports 12% +$791
crypto 2% +$60
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -5.6% -14.6% 61% 48% -4.3%
≤30d 35 -5.2% -14.2% 60% 49% -4.3%
≤90d 35 -5.2% -14.2% 60% 49% -4.3%
all 35 -5.2% -14.2% 60% 49% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 49% -4.3%
10% -22.4% 34% -13.5%
15% -29.9% 26% -21.8%
20% -36.8% 14% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +15% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$103 vs −$118 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$1,660
Realized+$366
Unrealized+$623
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses21 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage15d
Avg bet$274
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit28%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 60¢ 96¢ $1,037 $1,660 +$623 (+60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $133 −$71 -53%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $180 +$42 +23%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $243 −$140 -57%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $9 −$6 -70%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $3 +$2 +67%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $75 −$42 -55%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 +$5 +11%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,678 +$698 +42%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $925 +$753 +81%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $1,992 −$1,065 -54%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $22 −$21 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $100 −$79 -79%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $261 −$162 -62%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $201 +$60 +30%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $52 +$10 +20%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $7 −$6 -80%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 $0 +6%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $174 +$23 +13%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $303 +$22 +7%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $95 +$57 +60%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $33 +$12 +36%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $29 +$4 +15%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -68%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 $0 -33%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $22 +$8 +36%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $11 +$11 +97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$4 -25%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $13 +$2 +16%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $733 +$399 +54%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,367 +$51 +4%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$7 +36%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 07 $5 +$1 +24%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 07 $4 −$1 -23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 60¢ $193 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 60¢ $481 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 59¢ $375 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 43¢ $62 17h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 29¢ $62 17h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $133 18h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 66¢ $89 19h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 53¢ $89 19h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 53¢ $91 19h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 37¢ $91 19h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $225 19h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 88¢ $4 19h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $3 20h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 20h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 32¢ $9 20h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 39¢ $9 20h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $16 21h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 87¢ $5 22h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 13¢ $11 22h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 22h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 51¢ $3 22h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 30¢ $23 22h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $55 24h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $50 28h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $1,678 40h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 54¢ $925 41h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 40¢ $927 41h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $799 44h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $1,193 44h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $22 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,660.34 · official $1,660.34 (match) · 93 history records