Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:38:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
22 0x226c…e6e1 other 141 markets active 4d ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$42 (-10%) realized −$42 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate27%38W / 102L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit10%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$39
7 days+$9
14 days+$12
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% −$34
sports 2% −$8
world 1% $0
crypto 1% −$3
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -41.6% -47.2% 12% 12% +9.4%
≤30d 35 -28.9% -35.6% 14% 14% -17.6%
≤90d 73 -5.3% -14.3% 29% 26% -13.9%
all 140 -11.9% -20.2% 27% 24% -19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.2% 24% -19.2%
10% -27.9% 21% -26.9%
15% -34.8% 19% -34.0%
20% -41.2% 17% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×2.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses38 / 102
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)140 / 141
History coverage146d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-77%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 55 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $11 +$39 +367%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $3 +$20 +569%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $5 +$20 +416%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in May? May 27 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 27 $2 +$12 +488%
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 25 $33 −$3 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Liquid (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Gro May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Bengaluru 3: S D Prajwal Dev vs Ilya Ivashka May 19 $0 $0 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Ignacio Buse May 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $10 +$6 +58%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $6 +$2 +25%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $14 −$6 -42%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Russia enter Kharkiv by December 31, 2026? May 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $3 +$2 +57%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $17 +$3 +19%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $8 −$1 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 28 $1 $0 -10%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 28 $1 +$1 +72%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 28 $3 +$4 +136%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 28 $0 +$3 +540%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 3d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $0 3d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 3d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 3d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 4d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland BUY Ireland 19¢ $2 4d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 4d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 5d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 5d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 6d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 8d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 8d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY BetBoom Team 30¢ $2 11d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 11d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 11d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 11d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 11d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 11d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 11d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 11d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 11d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 12d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 12d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 12d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 12d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.03 · official $0.03 (match) · 284 history records