Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:38:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x226a…c7de crypto 1126 markets active 0h ago coverage 601d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$366 (-2%) realized −$366 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate87%966W / 147L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$128now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$40
7 days+$17
14 days+$84
30 days−$212
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% +$63
politics 19% −$178
other 14% −$264
world 3% −$72
sports 1% −$9
economics 0% +$6
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 286 +0.0% -9.5% 90% 7% -9.1%
≤30d 851 +1.9% -7.8% 92% 5% -11.0%
≤90d 1050 +1.2% -8.4% 89% 8% -11.7%
all 1113 -0.5% -10.0% 87% 9% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 9% -12.1%
10% -18.6% 7% -20.5%
15% -26.5% 6% -28.2%
20% -33.7% 6% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$7 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

601d coverage
Net worth$128
Realized−$366
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses966 / 147
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions12
Markets (closed)1113 / 1126
History coverage601d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 1113 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $30 $37 +$7 (+23%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-12%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 4¢ $5 $15 +$10 (+195%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-26%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-75%)
Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-46%)
Will Bradley Barcola be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-91%)
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-71%)
Will Marcus Thuram be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-83%)
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-91%)
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 23 $17 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 23 $17 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 23 $17 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 23 $17 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 23 $68 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 23 $17 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 23 $17 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 23 $17 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 23 $17 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 23 $51 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 22 $9 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 6PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$7 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 22 $17 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 22 $51 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$6 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 22 $17 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 22 $8 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 22 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 22 $17 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 22 $34 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 22 $14 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 22 $17 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 22 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 10AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 1PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 22, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 22 $17 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 22 $9 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 22 $9 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 22 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 22 $17 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 22 $17 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 22 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 22 $17 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 22 $85 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 9AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$7 +144%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 22 $17 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$7 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$9 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 22 $17 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$7 +144%
BNB Up or Down - June 22, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 22 $9 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 22, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 22 $34 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 22, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 22 $9 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 22, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 22 $9 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 22 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 22 $17 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 22, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 22 $9 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 22, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 22 $6 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $17 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $17 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $17 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $17 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $17 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $34 4h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $9 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $17 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $17 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $34 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $17 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 6PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $8 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $9 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $17 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $34 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $14 8h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $17 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $9 9h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 22, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $17 9h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $9 11h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $9 11h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 1PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $127.80 · official $127.84 (match) · 2671 history records