Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:25:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x2265…94b7 other 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$323 (-39%) realized −$323 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -50% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -55% what you keep after slip
Net edge-55%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%3W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$29
14 days−$323
30 days−$336
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% −$348
crypto 8% −$8
sports 4% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-54.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -62.0% -65.6% 17% 17% -47.7%
≤30d 21 -43.6% -49.0% 14% 14% -49.7%
≤90d 25 -50.1% -54.8% 12% 12% -50.7%
all 25 -50.1% -54.8% 12% 12% -50.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -54.8% 12% -50.7%
10% -59.1% 8% -55.5%
15% -63.1% 8% -59.8%
20% -66.7% 8% -63.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 93% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -46% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -50% · $-wt -46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late -65% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$17 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$323
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses3 / 22
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage132d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $51 $51 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $37 −$14 -37%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $7 −$7 -99%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $1 $0 +21%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $1 −$1 -99%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $1 +$1 +78%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $1 −$1 -92%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $15 −$2 -14%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $347 −$244 -70%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $78 −$7 -9%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $77 −$8 -10%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $43 −$3 -6%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $41 −$3 -7%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $16 −$2 -10%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $16 −$5 -29%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $19 +$14 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 25 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Italy win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? May 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Italy win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? May 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 25 $4 −$2 -36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $53 1h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $24 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $7 4d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 47¢ $1 6d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 31¢ $1 6d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 0.5 BUY Over 54¢ $1 6d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 BUY Over 82¢ $1 6d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $1 6d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes $0 6d
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2 6d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under $0 6d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 48¢ $1 6d
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $1 6d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $1 6d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1 6d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 40¢ $13 6d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $37 10d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 45¢ $15 10d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 10d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $103 10d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 16d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 21d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $244 21d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $71 21d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $69 21d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $40 21d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $38 21d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $15 21d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $12 21d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $16 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.94 · official $50.94 (match) · 70 history records