Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:47:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x2262…dd0b other 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 479d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized −$1 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate61%14W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% +$1
other 32% +$1
politics 4% $0
sports 2% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 10 +0.1% -9.4% 40% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 10 +0.1% -9.4% 40% 0% -9.7%
all 23 +0.1% -9.4% 61% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

479d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses14 / 9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage479d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 93¢ 96¢ $41 $42 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $45 −$1 -1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $41 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $34 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $3 $0 +3%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $36 +$1 +3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $34 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $18 −$1 -3%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $41 −$1 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? Dec 11 $12 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $10 $0 +1%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Jun 24 $22 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast buy TikTok before July? Apr 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Apr 17 $11 $0 -0%
Will Scottie Scheffler win The 2025 Masters? Apr 15 $11 $0 +2%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 13 $26 $0 +0%
Will the AFD be part of the next German government? Apr 13 $11 $0 +0%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Apr 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 25,000-50,000 between Apr 08 $7 $0 +2%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 02 $3 $0 -7%
Will the New York Rangers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 24 $15 $0 +0%
Will Carmelo Anthony make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Ha Mar 20 $15 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $41 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $37 8h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $37 12h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $41 19h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $41 19h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $7 8d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 8d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $3 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $3 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $2 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $34 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $34 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $1 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $2 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $2 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $1 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $34 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $3 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $1 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 91¢ $36 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $6 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $28 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $34 10d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 28¢ $3 13d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 13d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 28¢ $13 13d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 29¢ $18 13d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $41 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.24 · official $42.24 (match) · 78 history records