Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:26:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
22 0x2262…26fb sports 587 markets active 1h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$47 (-2%) realized −$38 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate61%352W / 229L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day15.8pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days+$77
14 days+$77
30 days+$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$37
crypto 22% −$57
other 9% −$34
world 6% −$24
weather 2% −$17
tech 0% $0
politics 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 112 +12.4% +1.7% 59% 52% +1.0%
≤30d 261 -0.4% -9.9% 62% 48% -3.9%
≤90d 581 -5.3% -14.3% 61% 43% -12.4%
all 581 -5.3% -14.3% 61% 43% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 43% -12.4%
10% -22.5% 28% -20.8%
15% -30.0% 21% -28.4%
20% -36.9% 14% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$38
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses352 / 229
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions6
Markets (closed)581 / 587
History coverage70d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day15.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 581 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 53¢ 52¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 46¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 Over $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Yes $3 $3 −$0 (-12%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Athletics 89¢ 18¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-79%)
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 122 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$16 +78%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $6 +$1 +20%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $7 $0 -2%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $5 +$20 +388%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5 +$8 +165%
ITF Irvine: Maria Aytoyan vs Caroline Driscoll Jun 16 $6 +$1 +20%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $22 +$51 +226%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
ITF Maanshan: Yecong Mo vs Joshua Charlton Jun 16 $2 −$1 -56%
ITF Tokyo: Yusuke Kusuhara vs Shu Matsuoka Jun 16 $1 $0 +41%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 16 $2 $0 -18%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $35 −$4 -12%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $2 +$1 +39%
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Jun 16 $9 $0 -3%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$6 +291%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$7 +325%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -13%
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs Wingman (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playof Jun 15 $7 −$7 -99%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $5 +$2 +44%
Dublin: Juan Pablo Ficovich vs Nicolas Mejia Jun 15 $3 +$2 +64%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $61 −$60 -98%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $27 +$5 +20%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Brescia: Alessandra Mazzola vs Luisina Giovannini Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $4 +$2 +37%
Dublin: Gauthier Onclin vs Kyrian Jacquet Jun 15 $2 −$2 -88%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $3 +$1 +44%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 15 $5 +$2 +34%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Jun 15 $3 +$1 +24%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $6 −$3 -49%
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Jun 15 $3 +$1 +37%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $7 +$2 +35%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lin Zhu vs Sinja Kraus Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs Coalesce (BO3) - United21 Group Jun 15 $4 −$1 -26%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$8 +82%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3 +$4 +123%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $5 +$1 +14%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $5 +$2 +31%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$10 +332%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $5 +$13 +250%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 BUY Over $5 1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes $2 1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes $3 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $5 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $36 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $15 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 89¢ $10 2h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds SELL Cincinnati Reds 100¢ $7 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $10 3h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 57¢ $5 3h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 83¢ $6 3h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 92¢ $7 3h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 93¢ $7 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 7h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes $1 7h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $5 7h
ITF Irvine: Maria Aytoyan vs Caroline Driscoll BUY Maria Aytoyan 83¢ $6 7h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 BUY Over $5 7h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 20¢ $5 7h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $5 7h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $73 7h
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli BUY Alvaro Guillen Meza 71¢ $1 17h
ITF Maanshan: Yecong Mo vs Joshua Charlton SELL Yecong Mo 21¢ $1 21h
ITF Maanshan: Yecong Mo vs Joshua Charlton BUY Yecong Mo 46¢ $2 22h
ITF Tokyo: Yusuke Kusuhara vs Shu Matsuoka SELL Yusuke Kusuhara 99¢ $1 23h
ITF Tokyo: Yusuke Kusuhara vs Shu Matsuoka BUY Yusuke Kusuhara 69¢ $1 24h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Chicago White Sox 45¢ $2 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.23 · official $21.23 (match) · 1240 history records