Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:32:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

22
0x2261…6ab6
world · 83 markets active 1h ago
1.0score
+$4 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$4 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$6
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses35 / 45
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)80 / 83
History coverage330d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit72%
Chart Positions 3 History 80 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$4
14 days+$5
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 83¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 27¢ 23¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $38 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $38 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $53 +$2 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $15 $0 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $6 +$1 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 07 $40 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $35 +$1 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $34 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 29 $58 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $105 −$2 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 25 $65 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $34 +$2 +5%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $97 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 21 $9 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 20 $20 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 20 $37 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 18 $32 +$2 +5%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $32 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 18 $31 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 17 $90 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 17 $33 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 16 $30 $0 -0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $33 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 14 $30 $0 +0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $29 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $124 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $91 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $29 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $138 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $30 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $29 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $29 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $30 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $32 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $60 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 18 $3 $0 -3%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 14 $72 $0 -0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 13 $95 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 13 $31 $0 -1%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 10 $31 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $1 $0 -1%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 08 $70 −$1 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 07 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 07 $32 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 07 $13 $0 +1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 03 $32 $0 +0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 03 $32 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 02 $32 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 32% +$5
other 29% $0
politics 17% $0
sports 15% −$1
economics 3% $0
crypto 1% −$1
finance 1% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 1h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 1h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $21 3h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $17 3h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 90¢ $38 7h
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 67¢ $13 45h
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 67¢ $25 45h
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 68¢ $7 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 67¢ $31 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 56¢ $37 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 56¢ $1 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 56¢ $0 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 52¢ $35 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $17 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $17 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 96¢ $15 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY No 94¢ $15 3d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 4d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 5d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 5d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 5d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 5d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 5d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $38 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $38 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $2 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $17 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $18 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +2.6% -7.1% 83% 0% -7.8%
≤30d 25 +1.1% -8.5% 56% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 67 +0.3% -9.3% 46% 0% -9.4%
all 80 +0.2% -9.3% 44% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.58 · official $4.84 (match) · 308 history records