Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:42:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
22 0x2260…e1ab crypto 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR73%break-even
Win rate80%12W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day25.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +73%
net ROI/market (all)+20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +32.6% +20.0% 80% 73% -2.6%
≤30d 15 +32.6% +20.0% 80% 73% -2.6%
≤90d 15 +32.6% +20.0% 80% 73% -2.6%
all 15 +32.6% +20.0% 80% 73% -2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +20.0% 73% -2.6%
10% ← realistic here +8.5% 67% -11.9%
15% -2.0% 47% -20.4%
20% -11.6% 33% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 54% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +44% → late +22% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$50 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses12 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage1d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day25.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$33 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$65 +249%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 23 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 23 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 23 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 23 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$27 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 23 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 23 $25 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 23 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 23 $30 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$3 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $92 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $35 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $53 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $34 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $35 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $28 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 34 history records