Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:27:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x225f…5978 sports 329 markets active 1h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$19 (+0%) realized +$19 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate47%153W / 175L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$60
7 days−$24
14 days−$24
30 days+$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% +$32
other 44% +$104
crypto 9% −$25
world 0% +$2
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -24.4% -31.6% 43% 36% -11.4%
≤30d 46 -6.9% -15.7% 48% 46% -7.2%
≤90d 328 -10.0% -18.6% 47% 41% -7.1%
all 328 -10.0% -18.6% 47% 41% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 41% -7.1%
10% -26.4% 36% -16.0%
15% -33.5% 30% -24.1%
20% -40.0% 24% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses153 / 175
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions0
Markets (closed)328 / 329
History coverage84d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 328 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 18 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $279 +$83 +30%
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $245 +$34 +14%
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 15 $403 −$102 -25%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $27 $0 +1%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $26 −$1 -4%
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 15 $25 −$3 -12%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $35 +$17 +49%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $30 +$10 +32%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$15 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 24 $7 −$5 -76%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 207.5 May 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $37 −$22 -59%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $5 −$1 -18%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $33 +$13 +41%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $5 −$2 -30%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $31 +$16 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 23 $4 +$3 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 23 $2 −$2 -81%
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks May 23 $12 +$6 +48%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 23 $5 +$6 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET May 23 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 22 $4 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET May 22 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET May 22 $4 +$2 +58%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels May 22 $13 +$24 +192%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $5 +$4 +86%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $15 +$11 +75%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 15.5 May 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners May 20 $51 +$11 +23%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 207.5 May 20 $18 −$3 -18%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $26 +$29 +114%
Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC end in a draw? May 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 210.5 May 20 $5 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 19 $15 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $10 −$9 -93%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) May 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 217.5 May 19 $15 +$9 +62%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5 May 19 $19 +$30 +154%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5 May 19 $5 −$5 -95%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5 May 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 220.5 May 19 $5 −$4 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 18 $5 +$6 +115%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 67¢ $147 1h
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 82¢ $183 1h
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 66¢ $215 1h
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 50¢ $254 2d
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 64¢ $45 2d
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 54¢ $302 2d
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 64¢ $99 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $26 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $25 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 2d
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 63¢ $49 2d
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 66¢ $10 2d
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 66¢ $10 2d
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 66¢ $20 2d
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 66¢ $7 2d
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 63¢ $49 2d
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 66¢ $3 2d
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 73¢ $37 2d
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 71¢ $316 2d
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 51¢ $22 2d
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 56¢ $25 2d
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 49¢ $25 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 73¢ $3 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 73¢ $25 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 97¢ $53 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 74¢ $10 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 937 history records