Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:20:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

22
0x225c…40dc
politics · 44 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$776 +8%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$493 · open +$211
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,387
Realized+$493
Unrealized+$211
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses15 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Open positions7
Markets (closed)37 / 44
History coverage351d
Avg bet$223
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit82%
Chart Positions 7 History 37 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes 58¢ 74¢ $524 $670 +$147 (+28%)
Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Yes 19¢ 23¢ $348 $416 +$68 (+19%)
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $222 $222 −$0 (-0%)
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $31 $28 −$3 (-9%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $26 $25 −$1 (-3%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $20 $21 +$0 (+2%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $5 −$1 (-10%)
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $7 −$5 -65%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 16 $434 +$12 +3%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $7 +$3 +38%
Will the Green Party win control of the most London borough councils? May 03 $91 −$1 -2%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Apr 26 $40 −$3 -8%
Will United Left (BSP) win at least one seat in the 2026 Bulgarian par Apr 19 $75 −$7 -9%
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament Apr 17 $650 +$545 +84%
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament Apr 13 $207 −$205 -99%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 09 $1,694 +$101 +6%
Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parl Mar 30 $809 +$27 +3%
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamen Mar 23 $734 −$80 -11%
Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenia Mar 22 $627 +$222 +36%
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamen Mar 22 $78 +$6 +7%
Will CDP win the most seats in the House of Councillors following the Mar 18 $127 −$127 -100%
League of Legends: Gen.G vs. T1 Mar 18 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Gen.G Mar 18 $162 −$162 -100%
Will The Greens win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parli Mar 08 $135 +$378 +279%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 1, 2026? Feb 28 $129 +$9 +7%
Will Hannah Spencer win the Gorton and Denton by-election? Feb 27 $90 +$40 +45%
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? Feb 26 $43 $0 +1%
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? Feb 26 $100 −$9 -9%
Will Bangladesh Nationalist Party win the most seats in the Bangladesh Feb 12 $112 +$10 +9%
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legisla Feb 08 $10 $0 -3%
Will GreenLeft–Labour win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parli Sep 28 $123 −$44 -36%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 21 $53 −$9 -17%
MSI Playoffs: Bilibili Gaming vs. Anyone's Legend Jul 12 $323 +$24 +8%
MSI Playoffs: CTBC Flying Oyster vs. Anyone's Legend Jul 11 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Ap win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary electio Jul 11 $338 −$5 -1%
MSI Playoffs: G2 Esports vs. FlyQuest Jul 08 $118 −$118 -100%
MSI Playoffs: T1 vs. Flying Oyster Jul 08 $72 −$72 -100%
Will Movistar KOI win the 2025 Mid-Season Invitational? Jul 04 $8 −$6 -67%
MSI Playoffs: Movistar KOI vs. Bilibili Gaming Jul 04 $65 −$65 -100%
MSI Playoffs: Anyone's Legend vs. FlyQuest Jul 03 $517 +$73 +14%
MSI Playoffs: Gen.G vs. G2 Jul 03 $38 −$38 -100%
Will G2 Esports win the 2025 Mid-Season Invitational? Jul 02 $8 −$7 -87%
MSI Play-in: G2 vs. GAM Jul 01 $156 +$76 +49%
MSI Play-in: G2 vs. Bilibili Gaming Jul 01 $59 −$59 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 74% +$1,106
sports 16% −$362
other 6% +$2
world 3% +$1
crypto 1% −$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $11 2d
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? SELL Yes 75¢ $37 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 3d
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary e BUY Yes 6¢ $5 4d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 4d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $19 4d
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? SELL Yes 76¢ $38 4d
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary e BUY Yes 6¢ $2 19d
Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 26d
Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? BUY Yes 24¢ $13 26d
Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 26d
Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 26d
Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? BUY Yes 24¢ $4 26d
Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 26d
Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 26d
Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? BUY Yes 24¢ $4 26d
Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 26d
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliam BUY Yes 12¢ $13 26d
Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 26d
Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? BUY Yes 23¢ $7 26d
Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 26d
Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 26d
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? SELL Yes 68¢ $67 26d
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary e BUY Yes 6¢ $4 28d
Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 28d
Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? BUY Yes 25¢ $27 28d
Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? BUY Yes 26¢ $27 28d
Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 28d
Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? BUY Yes 24¢ $24 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)+20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -41.8% -47.3% 50% 0% -8.0%
≤90d 16 +101.5% +82.3% 44% 19% -4.4%
all 37 +32.9% +20.2% 41% 19% -4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +20.2% 19% -4.1%
10% +8.7% 16% -13.3%
15% -1.8% 16% -21.7%
20% -11.4% 8% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,386.81 · official $1,386.81 (match) · 484 history records