Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:24:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x225b…3b07 other 54 markets active 7h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2 (-2%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate42%22W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day18.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$6
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% +$2
crypto 31% −$3
other 23% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -11.2% -19.6% 40% 26% -15.8%
≤30d 52 -8.6% -17.3% 42% 27% -13.7%
≤90d 52 -8.6% -17.3% 42% 27% -13.7%
all 52 -8.6% -17.3% 42% 27% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 27% -13.7%
10% -25.3% 19% -21.9%
15% -32.5% 13% -29.5%
20% -39.1% 12% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses22 / 30
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 54
History coverage8d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day18.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$1 -45%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 $0 -11%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +80%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 $0 -0%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +13%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 $0 -2%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $11 $0 -3%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$4 +421%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 15 $2 +$1 +29%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $1 $0 +11%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $2 +$1 +60%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 -6%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 +$2 +109%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 $0 -5%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -10%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +87%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +21%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $5 −$1 -20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +15%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $12 $0 -1%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +34%
T20 Blast: Durham vs Lancashire Jun 09 $3 $0 -2%
T20 Blast: Northamptonshire vs Worcestershire Jun 09 $1 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL 27¢ $1 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 46¢ $3 12h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh BUY Bangladesh 8¢ $1 17h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 19h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 46¢ $1 20h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $1 20h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 96¢ $1 23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 96¢ $1 23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 84¢ $1 23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 23h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 88¢ $1 26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY 55¢ $1 27h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 28h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 67¢ $1 29h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL No 78¢ $1 29h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $1 30h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 30h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 30h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland SELL England 95¢ $1 32h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland BUY England 94¢ $1 32h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL New Zealand 82¢ $1 33h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL New Zealand 72¢ $1 33h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL New Zealand 66¢ $1 33h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY New Zealand 72¢ $1 33h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY New Zealand 81¢ $1 33h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY New Zealand 84¢ $1 33h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL New Zealand 81¢ $1 34h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL New Zealand 81¢ $1 34h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY New Zealand 82¢ $1 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.50 · official $0.50 (match) · 174 history records