Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:30:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x225b…9a83 other 63 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (495 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$8,536 (+11%) realized +$8,986 · open −$450
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate33%12W / 24L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$1,182per market
Trades / day494.9pace
Fees−$156est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$10,501now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% +$10,373
sports 18% −$2,710
crypto 5% −$311
world 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (495 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)+4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +15.1% +4.2% 33% 19% +2.7%
≤30d 36 +15.1% +4.2% 33% 19% +2.7%
≤90d 36 +15.1% +4.2% 33% 19% +2.7%
all 36 +15.1% +4.2% 33% 19% +2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover494.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.2% 19% +2.7%
10% -5.8% 17% -7.1%
15% ← realistic here -14.9% 17% -16.1%
20% -23.2% 14% -24.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$1,733) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +42% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
35.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,263 vs −$307 · ×4.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.06 per $1 lost it wins $2.06
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$10,501
Realized+$8,986
Unrealized−$450
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses12 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$156
Open positions27
Markets (closed)36 / 63
History coverage4d
Avg bet$1,182
Trades / day494.9
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 58¢ 24¢ $10,281 $4,179 −$6,102 (-59%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? No 37¢ 100¢ $594 $1,592 +$997 (+168%)
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? No 77¢ 64¢ $1,191 $998 −$193 (-16%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 100¢ $204 $769 +$565 (+277%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 42¢ $214 $731 +$517 (+241%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? No 58¢ 58¢ $318 $319 +$1 (+0%)
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $296 $290 −$7 (-2%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $212 $210 −$2 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 44¢ $254 $209 −$45 (-18%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? No 47¢ 46¢ $197 $191 −$6 (-3%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 57¢ 44¢ $242 $189 −$53 (-22%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? No 33¢ 32¢ $176 $172 −$4 (-2%)
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 28¢ $90 $99 +$9 (+10%)
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 20¢ $38 $78 +$40 (+105%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 38¢ 8¢ $304 $69 −$235 (-77%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 38¢ 32¢ $75 $63 −$12 (-16%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 37¢ 38¢ $56 $57 +$1 (+1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? No 32¢ 76¢ $18 $43 +$25 (+139%)
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $39 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $38 $37 −$1 (-2%)
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 36¢ $28 $32 +$4 (+15%)
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 36¢ $20 $31 +$11 (+54%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 44¢ 56¢ $23 $29 +$6 (+26%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-1%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,280 +$66 +3%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,733 +$4,279 +247%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $278 −$271 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $2,040 −$1,320 -65%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $878 −$189 -22%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,125 +$972 +86%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,091 −$233 -21%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $1,312 −$346 -26%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $95 −$93 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $302 −$295 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1,555 +$570 +37%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3,558 −$267 -8%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2,627 +$337 +13%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,398 −$70 -5%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $545 −$32 -6%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $794 −$177 -22%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,083 −$88 -8%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $601 −$514 -85%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $1,960 −$3 -0%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,281 +$84 +7%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $416 +$30 +7%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $2,706 −$688 -25%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10,874 +$34 +0%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2,883 −$1,073 -37%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $26 +$234 +902%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $197 +$991 +502%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $17 −$16 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $148 −$37 -25%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $28 −$27 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $116 −$114 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1,417 −$1,389 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $685 +$9 +1%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $11,994 +$7,548 +63%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $198 −$67 -34%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $12 0m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $12 0m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $14 1m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $14 1m
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 56¢ $59 1m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $14 3m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $14 3m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $14 4m
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 58¢ $53 4m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $14 4m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $14 4m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $14 5m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $9 5m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $14 5m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 23¢ $15 5m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 23¢ $15 5m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 6m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $4 7m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 26¢ $6 11m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 26¢ $18 11m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 25¢ $17 11m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $17 12m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $16 12m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $16 12m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 25¢ $17 13m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 13m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 25¢ $11 13m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 25¢ $17 14m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 34¢ $3 20m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 34¢ $26 21m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,500.79 · official $10,500.83 (match) · 2261 history records