Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:20:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
22 0x225b…422a other 190 markets active 3d ago coverage 286d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$14,673 (+8%) realized +$6,295 · open +$8,378
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate52%96W / 88L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$920per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$16,897now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,299
7 days+$1,193
14 days+$1,014
30 days+$5,009
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 25% +$2,713
other 21% +$179
culture 13% +$857
sports 12% −$545
world 12% +$13,380
tech 7% −$931
economics 7% −$328
crypto 1% −$600
finance 0% +$194
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +200.5% +171.9% 50% 50% +102.1%
≤30d 13 +44.9% +31.1% 46% 38% +24.1%
≤90d 35 +40.0% +26.7% 49% 37% +19.5%
all 184 -6.7% -15.5% 52% 34% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 34% -5.8%
10% -23.6% 20% -14.8%
15% -31.0% 14% -23.0%
20% -37.8% 11% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$872) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$274 vs −$230 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

286d coverage
Net worth$16,897
Realized+$6,295
Unrealized+$8,378
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses96 / 88
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions6
Markets (closed)184 / 190
History coverage286d
Avg bet$920
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 184 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 41¢ 81¢ $7,265 $14,487 +$7,222 (+99%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 39¢ $147 $1,301 +$1,154 (+784%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 87¢ 99¢ $967 $1,102 +$135 (+14%)
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes $30 $4 −$25 (-85%)
Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes $65 $2 −$64 (-98%)
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes $45 $1 −$44 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Rick Jackson win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary ele Jun 17 $160 +$1,299 +812%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $611 −$89 -14%
Will there be a double Breen “Bang” during the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $167 −$22 -13%
Will Mai Vang advance from the CA-07 primary election? Jun 10 $29 +$5 +18%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $183 −$179 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $6,816 +$4,746 +70%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,262 +$68 +5%
Will Drake have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this Jun 01 $4,055 +$44 +1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 27 $695 −$694 -100%
Will Derek Dooley be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? May 27 $73 −$72 -99%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 450k and 500k? May 24 $89 +$170 +191%
Will Jared Hudson be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? May 24 $244 −$239 -98%
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? May 20 $28 −$27 -97%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 16 $77 +$222 +289%
Will Drake feature Sexyy Red on ICEMAN? May 15 $25 +$150 +596%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi May 15 $204 +$177 +87%
Will Drake feature Kendrick Lamar on ICEMAN? May 15 $195 +$8 +4%
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $80 +$195 +244%
Will Drake feature Future on ICEMAN? May 15 $164 −$29 -18%
Will Drake feature Lil Baby on ICEMAN? May 15 $127 +$148 +117%
Will Powell say "Successor" during April press conference? May 05 $20 +$40 +195%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? May 05 $102 +$1 +1%
Will Powell say "Iran" during April press conference? Apr 29 $52 −$52 -99%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? Apr 29 $1,304 +$87 +7%
Will Justin Bieber have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listene Apr 27 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners Apr 25 $1,035 −$49 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 24 $4,320 +$1,374 +32%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 3-6%? Apr 22 $21 −$20 -96%
Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by less tha Apr 22 $10 −$10 -96%
Will "Lee Cronin's The Mummy" score at least 55 on the Rotten Tomatoes Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Mother Mary" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatomete Apr 17 $308 −$294 -96%
Will "Mother Mary" score at least 75 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatomete Apr 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Trump say "Egg" at the NRCC Dinner on March 25? Mar 26 $72 −$70 -97%
Will Powell say "Iran" during March press conference? Mar 26 $77 +$133 +171%
Will Powell say "Gold" or "Oil" during March press conference? Mar 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Two People Exchanging Saliva win Best Live Action Short Film at t Mar 17 $1,659 +$202 +12%
Will 'Kiss All The Time. Disco, Occasionally' - Harry Styles debut wee Mar 16 $883 +$221 +25%
Will 'The Romantic' debut week album sales be between 150k and 200k? Mar 11 $1,104 +$11 +1%
Will 'The Romantic' debut week album sales be between 200k and 250k? Mar 11 $1,753 +$22 +1%
Will 'Luck... or Something' - Hilary Duff debut week album sales be at Mar 04 $38 +$2 +6%
Will 'Cloud 9' - Megan Moroney debut week album sales be less than 30k Mar 04 $145 +$2 +1%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 04 $11,118 +$221 +2%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Feb 28 $95 −$95 -100%
Will Trump say "The State of the Union is strong" during the 2026 Stat Feb 26 $740 +$160 +22%
Cavaliers vs. Thunder Feb 23 $5,883 +$6 +0%
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 1m? Feb 16 $190 +$82 +43%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $17 mi Feb 16 $184 +$151 +82%
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 1.4m? Feb 16 $422 +$78 +18%
Will ‘The Fall-Off’ debut week album sales be between 250k and 300k? Feb 16 $10 +$23 +233%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 47¢ $50 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 47¢ $470 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 47¢ $1 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 47¢ $1 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 80¢ $197 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 80¢ $160 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 80¢ $256 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 80¢ $165 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 55¢ $611 5d
Will there be a double Breen “Bang” during the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 36¢ $2 5d
Will there be a double Breen “Bang” during the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 36¢ $33 5d
Will there be a double Breen “Bang” during the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 37¢ $109 6d
Will there be a double Breen “Bang” during the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 41¢ $167 6d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 22¢ $9 8d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 22¢ $174 8d
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes $38 14d
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes $20 14d
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes $19 14d
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes $22 14d
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes $0 14d
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes $0 14d
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes $0 14d
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes $14 14d
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes $20 14d
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes $18 14d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY No 87¢ $967 14d
Will Mai Vang advance from the CA-07 primary election? BUY Yes 84¢ $29 14d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $5 15d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $35 15d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $173 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16,896.52 · official $16,898.29 (match) · 2118 history records