Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:30:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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22 0x2255…a4f6 crypto 1903 markets active 1h ago coverage 79d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 78d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$142 (-2%) realized −$144 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate78%1495W / 426L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day25.3pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$73
7 days−$114
14 days−$80
30 days−$67
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$178
other 7% +$17
weather 1% +$7
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 306 -10.0% -18.6% 76% 76% -17.3%
≤30d 497 -2.9% -12.1% 79% 79% -12.4%
≤90d 1921 -7.6% -16.4% 78% 26% -12.1%
all 1921 -7.6% -16.4% 78% 26% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.4% 26% -12.1%
10% ← realistic here -24.4% 4% -20.5%
15% -31.7% 4% -28.2%
20% -38.4% 2% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$144
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses1495 / 426
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1921 / 1903
History coverage79d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day25.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1921 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C or below on June 24? Yes 19¢ 36¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+89%)
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? Yes 33¢ 32¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 24? Yes 22¢ 36¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 422 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - April 3, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 3, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 3, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 2, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 4, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 3, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 3, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 4, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 4, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 4, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $33 +$19 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 23 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 23 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 22 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 22 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 22 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 22 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 22 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 22 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 22 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 22 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 22 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 22 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 22 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 22 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 22 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 22 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 22 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 22 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 22 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 21 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 21 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 21 $4 +$1 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $4 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 4h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $4 9h
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C or below on June 24? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 9h
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 24? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 12h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $4 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $4 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $4 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.50 · official $8.50 (match) · 3500 history records