Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T23:53:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
22 0x2253…4b5a other 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 33d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$142 (+3%) realized −$143 · open +$285
Gross ROI / mkt +71% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +55% what you keep after slip
Net edge+55%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$266per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$2,917now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 33d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% +$261
sports 16% +$609
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+54.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +71.0% +54.7% 62% 50% +45.5%
≤30d 8 +71.0% +54.7% 62% 50% +45.5%
≤90d 8 +71.0% +54.7% 62% 50% +45.5%
all 8 +71.0% +54.7% 62% 50% +45.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +54.7% 50% +45.5%
10% +39.9% 38% +31.6%
15% +26.4% 38% +18.9%
20% +14.0% 38% +7.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 82% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +61% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +71% · $-wt +61% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$146 vs −$47 · ×3.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.12 per $1 lost it wins $5.12
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$2,917
Realized−$143
Unrealized+$285
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions3
Markets (closed)8 / 17
History coverage33d
Avg bet$266
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2,438 $2,717 +$279 (+11%)
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 2 Portugal? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $97 $106 +$9 (+9%)
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 3 Portugal? Yes $97 $94 −$3 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? AND Will Egypt vs. IR Jun 27 $100 +$596 +596%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $121 +$23 +19%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $34 +$34 +100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $254 −$21 -8%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $231 +$24 +10%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$51 +51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 3 Portugal? BUY Yes $100 1h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 2 Portugal? BUY Yes 11¢ $100 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? A BUY 23¢ $197 6h
Harry Kane: 2+ goals AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Eng BUY $100 6h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? AND Will Croatia vs. Ghana end BUY $100 8h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? AND Will Egypt vs. IR SELL 80¢ $696 19h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? AND Will Norway vs. Fr BUY $100 32h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06 BUY $25 32h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? AND Will Egypt vs. IR BUY 11¢ $100 32h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? AND Will Paraguay vs. Au BUY 11¢ $335 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $499 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $309 6d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $144 6d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 60¢ $67 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 6d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $34 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 62¢ $110 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 69¢ $123 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $254 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $255 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $231 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 98¢ $152 6d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 7d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $54 7d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 7d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $499 8d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $329 9d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $197 26d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $68 26d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $672 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,917.43 · official $3,109.99 · 65 history records