Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:13:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
22 0x2251…bf89 other 62 markets active 1h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3,882 (+20%) realized +$3,803 · open +$79
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +20% what you keep after slip
Net edge+20%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate97%38W / 1L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$318per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$7,125now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$900
7 days+$900
14 days+$1,227
30 days+$3,690
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% +$607
sports 30% +$954
finance 17% +$2,095
crypto 7% +$204
tech 4% +$31
world 4% +$5
economics 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +27.4% +15.3% 100% 29% +28.5%
≤30d 26 +35.8% +22.8% 100% 38% +19.5%
≤90d 39 +32.3% +19.7% 97% 33% +17.9%
all 39 +32.3% +19.7% 97% 33% +17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +19.7% 33% +17.9%
10% +8.2% 21% +6.6%
15% -2.2% 18% -3.7%
20% -11.8% 18% -13.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +32% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +42% → late +23% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$101 vs −$31 · ×3.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×122.55 per $1 lost it wins $122.55
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$7,125
Realized+$3,803
Unrealized+$79
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses38 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions23
Markets (closed)39 / 62
History coverage76d
Avg bet$318
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will UNI reach $9.50 by December 31, 2026? No 35¢ 88¢ $350 $880 +$530 (+151%)
Will Zcash dip to $100 by December 31, 2026? No 60¢ 74¢ $605 $757 +$151 (+25%)
Will Hyperliquid introduce KYC by September 30, 2026? No 87¢ 86¢ $696 $692 −$4 (-1%)
Will Aster dip to $0.20 by December 31, 2026? No 45¢ 68¢ $450 $680 +$230 (+51%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? No 61¢ 50¢ $715 $590 −$125 (-18%)
Will Sui dip to $0.20 before 2027? No 75¢ 56¢ $750 $565 −$185 (-25%)
HYPE Up or Down on June 16? Up 99¢ 53¢ $990 $530 −$460 (-46%)
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $345 in June? No 97¢ 92¢ $483 $461 −$22 (-5%)
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $296 in June? No 93¢ 98¢ $400 $420 +$20 (+5%)
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $63 Week of June 15 2026? No 94¢ 96¢ $282 $286 +$4 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? No 96¢ 99¢ $193 $198 +$5 (+3%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 91¢ 98¢ $182 $195 +$13 (+7%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? No 35¢ 19¢ $331 $178 −$153 (-46%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June? No 94¢ 99¢ $155 $164 +$9 (+6%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at <$6,000 in December? No 56¢ 90¢ $61 $97 +$36 (+60%)
Will Chainlink dip to $4 in June? No 97¢ 97¢ $97 $97 +$0 (+0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $56 on the final trading day of June 2026? Yes 89¢ 99¢ $85 $94 +$9 (+11%)
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? No 89¢ 99¢ $44 $50 +$5 (+12%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No 87¢ 99¢ $43 $50 +$6 (+14%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? No 88¢ 98¢ $44 $49 +$6 (+13%)
Will BNB reach $900 in June? No 96¢ 98¢ $48 $49 +$1 (+2%)
Will Zcash dip to $50 by December 31, 2026? No 79¢ 88¢ $22 $24 +$3 (+12%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,950 Week of June 15 2026? No 99¢ 98¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Solana reach $100 June 1-7? Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 16 $42 +$2 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 16 $140 +$1 +1%
Test Series England vs. New Zealand: England vs New Zealand - Match go Jun 16 $200 +$6 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 1-7? Jun 16 $392 +$8 +2%
Test Series England vs. New Zealand: England vs New Zealand - Match go Jun 16 $916 +$180 +20%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 16 $439 +$701 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 06 $200 +$170 +85%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $64 +$1 +1%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $775 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $126 +$1 +1%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close at $280-$285 on the final day of trading of t Jun 05 $205 +$3 +2%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close at $290-$295 on the final day of trading of t Jun 05 $648 +$152 +24%
Will Sai Sudharsan win the 2026 IPL Orange Cap? Jun 01 $5 $0 +1%
Will Vaibhav Sooryavanshi win the 2026 IPL Emerging Player of the Seas Jun 01 $817 +$5 +1%
Will Virat Kohli win the 2026 IPL Orange Cap? May 31 $41 $0 +1%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $3,382 +$618 +18%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $66 in May? May 30 $45 +$1 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May? May 30 $243 +$1 +0%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $90 in May? May 30 $297 +$3 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 30 $297 +$3 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 30 $138 +$162 +117%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in May? May 30 $693 +$7 +1%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 30 $1,350 +$150 +11%
Will Vaibhav Sooryavanshi win the 2026 IPL Orange Cap? May 29 $300 +$450 +150%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? May 27 $116 +$97 +83%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? May 24 $410 +$966 +236%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of May 4 2026? May 11 $143 +$7 +5%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in April? May 07 $19 +$1 +5%
Will Chainlink reach $16 in April? May 07 $61 +$1 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in April? May 07 $96 +$4 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? May 07 $25 +$91 +370%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $170 on April 6? Apr 07 $13 +$2 +12%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 March 30-April 5? Apr 07 $98 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 March 30-April 5? Apr 07 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $390 on April 6? Apr 07 $237 +$48 +20%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.30 Week of March 30 2026? Apr 04 $70 +$3 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 Week of March 30 2026? Apr 04 $79 +$1 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of March 30 above $165? Apr 04 $142 +$3 +2%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 2? Apr 03 $31 −$31 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,950 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 99¢ $20 1h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $63 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 94¢ $283 1h
HYPE Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 99¢ $991 3h
Will Zcash dip to $100 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $498 10d
Will Zcash dip to $100 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $124 10d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 Week of June 8 2026? BUY No 94¢ $16 10d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 Week of June 8 2026? BUY No 95¢ $26 10d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 Week of June 8 2026? BUY No 99¢ $140 10d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 Week of June 8 2026? BUY No 99¢ $139 10d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 Week of June 8 2026? BUY No 30¢ $300 10d
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 38¢ $50 10d
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $78 10d
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 38¢ $2 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $3 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $18 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $0 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $20 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $3 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $15 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $7 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $50 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $50 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $3 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $28 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $12 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $4 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,124.70 · official $7,124.80 (match) · 209 history records