Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:08:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
22 0x2250…4370 crypto 1475 markets active 1h ago coverage 92d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 92d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$45 (+0%) realized +$45 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate97%1422W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day21.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$31
14 days+$87
30 days+$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$253
other 0% −$2
tech 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 84 +0.2% -9.4% 95% 5% -8.5%
≤30d 410 +0.7% -8.9% 96% 4% -9.0%
≤90d 1396 +0.8% -8.8% 96% 5% -9.3%
all 1473 +0.9% -8.7% 97% 4% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.7% 4% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -17.4% 3% -17.8%
15% -25.4% 2% -25.8%
20% -32.7% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$34 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized+$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses1422 / 51
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1473 / 1475
History coverage92d ⚠
Avg bet$38
Trades / day21.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1473 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? No 51¢ 50¢ $51 $50 −$1 (-1%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET Jun 17 $29 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET Jun 17 $59 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7PM ET Jun 17 $59 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET Jun 16 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET Jun 16 $49 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET Jun 16 $29 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET Jun 16 $29 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET Jun 16 $58 +$2 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET Jun 16 $29 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET Jun 16 $59 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 12PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET Jun 16 $29 +$1 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET Jun 16 $29 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET Jun 15 $29 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET Jun 15 $29 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET Jun 15 $29 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Jun 15 $29 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET Jun 15 $24 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET Jun 15 $29 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET Jun 15 $53 +$2 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET Jun 15 $58 +$2 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET Jun 15 $29 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1PM ET Jun 14 $58 +$2 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET Jun 14 $29 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET Jun 14 $28 +$2 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7AM ET Jun 14 $19 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET Jun 14 $29 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2AM ET Jun 14 $29 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2AM ET Jun 14 $59 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10PM ET Jun 14 $29 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10PM ET Jun 14 $58 +$2 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7PM ET Jun 14 $29 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1PM ET Jun 13 $29 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1PM ET Jun 13 $29 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12AM ET Jun 13 $29 −$29 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12AM ET Jun 13 $29 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11PM ET Jun 13 $29 +$1 +4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $10 +$14 +133%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET Jun 12 $29 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET Jun 12 $29 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2PM ET Jun 12 $29 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1PM ET Jun 12 $29 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET Jun 12 $30 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11PM ET Jun 12 $58 +$2 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 15¢ $5 35m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $19 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $29 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $29 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $29 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $29 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $20 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $29 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $20 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $29 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $29 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $29 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $29 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $24 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 12h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $29 17h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $29 17h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 13¢ $7 17h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $29 28h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $29 29h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $29 31h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $29 33h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $29 35h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $29 36h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $24 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.52 · official $62.53 (match) · 3500 history records