Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:33:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x224d…b8cc crypto 507 markets active 0h ago coverage 68d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 68d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$21 (+0%) realized +$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate37%190W / 317L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day42.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$8
14 days+$0
30 days−$225
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$423
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -32.0% -38.5% 25% 11% -10.0%
≤30d 354 -18.8% -26.6% 33% 26% -19.2%
≤90d 507 -8.9% -17.6% 37% 32% -16.8%
all 507 -8.9% -17.6% 37% 32% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.6% 32% -16.8%
10% ← realistic here -25.5% 27% -24.8%
15% -32.7% 22% -32.0%
20% -39.3% 17% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses190 / 317
Open positions0
Markets (closed)507 / 507
History coverage68d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day42.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 507 Trades
no open positions (33 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$15 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$7 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$3 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET Jun 15 $28 +$10 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$8 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$4 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$4 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7PM ET Jun 12 $7 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6PM ET Jun 12 $13 −$6 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4PM ET Jun 12 $24 +$9 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET Jun 12 $13 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET Jun 12 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$3 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2PM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12PM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9AM ET Jun 06 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7AM ET Jun 06 $3 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5PM ET Jun 05 $3 +$2 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2PM ET Jun 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12PM ET Jun 05 $1 +$4 +245%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11AM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3PM ET Jun 04 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 03 $5 +$5 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12PM ET Jun 01 $3 +$2 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 30 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 28 $4 −$2 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 28 $6 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 28 $4 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 26 $10 −$4 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 26 $8 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 26 $9 +$1 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $4 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $9 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET SELL Up 28¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $16 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records