Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:30:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
22 0x224c…da97 other 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 176d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$41 (+3%) realized +$45 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate86%12W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$500now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$153
30 days+$216
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$7
sports 36% +$39
crypto 14% $0
politics 3% $0
world 2% +$2
tech 2% +$1
economics 2% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +73.7% +57.1% 100% 100% +59.7%
≤90d 9 +6.1% -4.0% 89% 22% -4.4%
all 14 -2.5% -11.8% 86% 14% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 14% -5.0%
10% -20.2% 14% -14.1%
15% -27.9% 14% -22.4%
20% -35.0% 14% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$90 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

176d coverage
Net worth$500
Realized+$45
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses12 / 2
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage176d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $504 $500 −$4 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $185 +$153 +83%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $97 +$63 +65%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár? May 21 $15 $0 +0%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 27 $179 −$177 -99%
Will there be at least 1400 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 202 Apr 27 $10 $0 +0%
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after March 2026 meeting? Apr 27 $11 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Apr 27 $13 +$1 +7%
Will US GDP growth in 2025 be less than 0.5%? Apr 27 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 11? Apr 27 $186 $0 +0%
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90%? Feb 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at <$45 in January? Feb 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Feb 03 $13 $0 +3%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 03 $29 +$2 +6%
Will Trump pardon Maduro by December 31? Jan 06 $22 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $500.18 · official $500.18 (match) · 27 history records