trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 2 | +73.7% | +57.1% | 100% | 100% | +59.7% |
| ≤90d | 9 | +6.1% | -4.0% | 89% | 22% | -4.4% |
| all | 14 | -2.5% | -11.8% | 86% | 14% | -5.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -11.8% | 14% | -5.0% |
| 10% | -20.2% | 14% | -14.1% |
| 15% | -27.9% | 14% | -22.4% |
| 20% | -35.0% | 14% | -30.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? | Yes | 68¢ | 68¢ | $504 | $500 | −$4 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spurs vs. Knicks | Jun 11 | $185 | +$153 | +83% |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | May 29 | $97 | +$63 | +65% |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár? | May 21 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Pistons vs. Magic | Apr 27 | $179 | −$177 | -99% |
| Will there be at least 1400 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 202 | Apr 27 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after March 2026 meeting? | Apr 27 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? | Apr 27 | $13 | +$1 | +7% |
| Will US GDP growth in 2025 be less than 0.5%? | Apr 27 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 11? | Apr 27 | $186 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90%? | Feb 07 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at <$45 in January? | Feb 03 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on | Feb 03 | $13 | $0 | +3% |
| Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | Feb 03 | $29 | +$2 | +6% |
| Will Trump pardon Maduro by December 31? | Jan 06 | $22 | $0 | +0% |