Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T07:54:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

22
0x224b…1050
sports · 238 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$156 -14%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$158 · open +$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$138
Realized−$158
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses72 / 122
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions43
Markets (closed)194 / 238
History coverage59d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day11.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%
Chart Positions 43 History 194 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$1
14 days−$150
30 days−$158
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? No 76¢ 100¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+30%)
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026? Yes 39¢ 42¢ $7 $7 +$1 (+9%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? No 70¢ 68¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? No 63¢ 66¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+5%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $6 $6 +$1 (+9%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 70¢ 74¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No 69¢ 70¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? No 58¢ 76¢ $4 $6 +$1 (+30%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? No 64¢ 62¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-3%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 58¢ 60¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 47¢ 42¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-12%)
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? No 31¢ 48¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+56%)
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-7%)
Insurrection Act invoked by December 31? No 78¢ 81¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+4%)
Will Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2027? No 80¢ 76¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-6%)
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? No 44¢ 47¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+7%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Yes 19¢ 22¢ $3 $3 +$1 (+18%)
Will "Disclosure Day" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards? No 60¢ 64¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+8%)
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes 16¢ 26¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+66%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 35¢ 35¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Under 39¢ 38¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 60¢ 60¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $9 $0 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $12 −$1 -6%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $8 +$2 +19%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +109%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $6 +$1 +11%
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? Jun 12 $3 $0 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 12 $4 $0 -6%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 -43%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $3 +$1 +38%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +71%
Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by July 31? Jun 12 $6 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $3 +$2 +56%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 12 $12 −$2 -18%
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by J Jun 12 $9 −$3 -33%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +27%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 12 $3 $0 -2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $9 −$2 -21%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $16 −$2 -14%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 12 $6 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 12 $4 −$1 -32%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $6 −$3 -44%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 12 $1 $0 -21%
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $4 $0 +8%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $6 +$3 +54%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $3 +$2 +76%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 11 $1 $0 -36%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $4 +$5 +121%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $1 +$1 +97%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? Jun 11 $10 $0 -3%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? Jun 11 $6 $0 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $6 +$1 +14%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $6 +$2 +36%
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? Jun 10 $1 $0 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C or below on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +20%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $4 $0 -9%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 10 $4 +$3 +69%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 09 $7 −$1 -8%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 09 $6 −$1 -25%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 09 $6 +$2 +27%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 09 $4 $0 -4%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1 +$1 +79%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 07 $5 −$1 -24%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 07 $5 +$1 +14%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $5 $0 -6%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $3 +$2 +48%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 06 $5 +$2 +32%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technoc Jun 06 $3 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 59% −$137
world 19% −$4
other 9% +$3
politics 8% −$16
finance 4% +$1
tech 1% −$2
culture 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 35¢ $3 7m
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $2 39m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 41¢ $2 53m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $0 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 2h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 37¢ $4 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 2h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 39¢ $2 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 20¢ $1 4h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 61¢ $1 4h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 5h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 5h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? SELL No 71¢ $2 11h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? SELL No 71¢ $4 11h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $1 11h
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? SELL No 69¢ $1 11h
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? SELL No 69¢ $1 11h
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? SELL No 69¢ $1 11h
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? SELL No 69¢ $1 11h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 33¢ $3 12h
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? BUY No 69¢ $3 12h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 35¢ $4 12h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 35¢ $1 12h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 12h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 12h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 96¢ $5 12h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 18¢ $2 13h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $2 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-30.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 +2.5% -7.3% 44% 37% -9.3%
≤30d 193 -23.2% -30.5% 37% 30% -25.2%
≤90d 194 -23.0% -30.4% 37% 30% -25.2%
all 194 -23.0% -30.4% 37% 30% -25.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover11.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.4% 30% -25.2%
10% -37.0% 26% -32.3%
15% -43.1% 19% -38.9%
20% -48.7% 12% -44.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $137.55 · official $137.44 (match) · 718 history records