Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:11:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
22 0x2248…45c8 crypto 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 266d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$51 (-25%) realized −$51 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 266d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% −$50
other 49% +$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +41.7% +28.2% 100% 100% +28.2%
≤30d 1 +41.7% +28.2% 100% 100% +28.2%
≤90d 1 +41.7% +28.2% 100% 100% +28.2%
all 5 -2.3% -11.6% 60% 40% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 40% -13.1%
10% -20.0% 40% -21.4%
15% -27.8% 40% -29.0%
20% -34.8% 0% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 98% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +42% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$25 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

266d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage266d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $100 +$42 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Oct 05 $63 −$50 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Oct 05 $2 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Oct 05 $39 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Oct 05 $1 $0 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 85¢ $141 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 59¢ $100 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 0¢ $0 265d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $43 265d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $13 265d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 265d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $20 265d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 265d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $2 265d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 265d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $39 265d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 266d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 15 history records