Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:41:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
22 0x2248…bc0e sports 222 markets active 0h ago coverage 278d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$24,029 (-9%) realized −$23,939 · open −$90
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate55%121W / 98L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,272per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$2,448est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$710now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$5,660
30 days+$5,660
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$26,187
economics 2% +$502
politics 1% +$37
world 1% −$298
crypto 0% −$16
other 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -45.0% -50.2% 33% 33% +24.5%
≤90d 209 -1.1% -10.5% 55% 51% -18.3%
all 219 -1.3% -10.7% 55% 50% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 50% -17.9%
10% -19.2% 37% -25.7%
15% -27.0% 26% -32.9%
20% -34.2% 16% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$1,200) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$495 vs −$875 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

278d coverage
Net worth$710
Realized−$23,939
Unrealized−$90
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses121 / 98
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$2,448
Open positions3
Markets (closed)219 / 222
History coverage278d
Avg bet$1,272
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 219 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $500 $498 −$2 (-0%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner FURIA 15¢ 2¢ $100 $13 −$87 (-87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $12,532 +$8,160 +65%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $1,020 −$1,000 -98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $1,525 −$1,500 -98%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Apr 29 $1,018 −$1,018 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Team Vitality (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qual Apr 29 $8,729 −$8,600 -98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Fnatic (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Pla Apr 29 $9,968 +$1,912 +19%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 29 $1,650 −$1,650 -100%
LoL: GIANTX vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Apr 29 $3,152 −$3,100 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner Apr 29 $982 −$968 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 29 $4,910 −$4,830 -98%
LoL: Fnatic vs Shifters - Game 1 Winner Apr 29 $814 −$814 -100%
LoL: Fnatic vs Shifters - Game 2 Winner Apr 29 $4,645 −$4,645 -100%
LoL: Team Heretics vs SK Gaming - Game 2 Winner Apr 29 $608 +$437 +72%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Solary (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Apr 29 $13,070 +$2,785 +21%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 28 $13,857 −$13,857 -100%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Apr 28 $1,135 +$192 +17%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Apr 28 $503 +$114 +23%
LoL: Fnatic vs Shifters (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Playo Apr 28 $204 −$128 -63%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers Leag Apr 28 $4,000 +$933 +23%
LoL: G2 NORD vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO3) - Prime League 1st Divisi Apr 27 $2,000 +$1,047 +52%
LoL: Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition vs Kaufland Hangry Knights - Game 1 Apr 27 $103 −$103 -100%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Sentinels (BO3) - LCS Regular Season Apr 27 $4,500 +$1,697 +38%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Sentinels - Game 2 Winner Apr 27 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Fnatic (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 27 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
LoL: Shifters vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 27 $150 −$150 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Fnatic - Game 2 Winner Apr 26 $1,300 −$1,300 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Fnatic - Game 1 Winner Apr 26 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Apr 26 $400 +$166 +42%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 26 $1,200 +$310 +26%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 26 $1,200 +$238 +20%
LoL: Ultra Prime vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Apr 26 $500 −$500 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Shifters - Game 2 Winner Apr 26 $1,001 −$1,001 -100%
LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 26 $250 −$250 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Apr 26 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
LoL: Fnatic vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 26 $2,000 −$1,145 -57%
LoL: T1 Academy vs BNK FearX Youth (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Roun Apr 26 $1,200 +$388 +32%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Shifters (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 26 $10,000 +$1,078 +11%
LoL: Fnatic vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Apr 25 $500 −$500 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner Apr 25 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 25 $500 +$705 +141%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 25 $2,000 +$370 +18%
LoL: Team WE vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 25 $3,000 +$442 +15%
LoL: T1 vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 25 $3,000 +$397 +13%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5) Apr 25 $500 +$239 +48%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Apr 25 $1,900 +$2,237 +118%
LoL: T1 Academy vs HANJIN BRION Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers Le Apr 25 $2,998 +$468 +16%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 25 $1,000 +$396 +40%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Apr 25 $800 +$387 +48%
LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 25 $400 −$400 -100%
LoL: Shifters vs Fnatic - Game 2 Winner Apr 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 15¢ $103 27m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $513 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $206 1h
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY G2 Esports 44¢ $1,510 13d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY G2 Esports 46¢ $2,541 13d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY G2 Esports 33¢ $1,020 13d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY G2 Esports 71¢ $8,482 13d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY G2 Esports 35¢ $510 13d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY G2 Esports 48¢ $1,016 13d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Team Vitality (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qual BUY Team Vitality 51¢ $2,943 52d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Team Vitality (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qual BUY Team Vitality 49¢ $2,741 52d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Team Vitality (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qual BUY Team Vitality 50¢ $2,030 52d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Team Vitality (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qual BUY Team Vitality 49¢ $1,015 52d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Fnatic (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Pla SELL G2 Esports 100¢ $8,734 52d
LoL: GIANTX vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier BUY GIANTX 44¢ $1,118 53d
LoL: GIANTX vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier BUY GIANTX 44¢ $1,017 53d
LoL: GIANTX vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier BUY GIANTX 43¢ $1,017 53d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Fnatic (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Pla SELL G2 Esports 77¢ $3,146 53d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Fnatic (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Pla BUY G2 Esports 77¢ $2,920 53d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Fnatic (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Pla BUY G2 Esports 77¢ $3,021 53d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Fnatic (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Pla BUY G2 Esports 77¢ $2,014 53d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Fnatic (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Pla BUY G2 Esports 77¢ $1,007 53d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Fnatic (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Pla BUY G2 Esports 77¢ $1,007 53d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster 49¢ $686 53d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY KT Rolster 47¢ $2,367 53d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster 54¢ $296 53d
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Ninjas in Pyjamas 39¢ $1,018 53d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY KT Rolster 43¢ $2,543 53d
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Ninjas in Pyjamas 33¢ $725 53d
LoL: Team Heretics vs SK Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY SK Gaming 63¢ $101 53d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $709.75 · official $709.75 (match) · 647 history records