Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:19:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x2247…71c2 sports 256 markets active 6d ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$481 (-17%) realized −$481 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate25%65W / 191L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day13.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$221
14 days−$221
30 days−$221
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 40% −$141
sports 35% −$198
world 13% −$71
other 9% −$78
politics 4% −$5
economics 0% $0
weather 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-25.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -22.5% -29.9% 58% 19% -30.3%
≤30d 26 -22.5% -29.9% 58% 19% -30.3%
≤90d 26 -22.5% -29.9% 58% 19% -30.3%
all 256 -17.9% -25.7% 25% 12% -25.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.7% 12% -25.0%
10% -32.8% 9% -32.2%
15% -39.3% 7% -38.8%
20% -45.2% 5% -44.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$481
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses65 / 191
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)256 / 256
History coverage128d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day13.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 256 Trades
no open positions (35 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 11 $116 −$116 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$5 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 11 $108 +$13 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 11 $13 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$2 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $111 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $32 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 11 $100 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 11 $90 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 11 $42 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 11 $85 +$9 +11%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 11 $66 −$65 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 11 $106 −$39 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 11 $12 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 11 $7 $0 +1%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 5, 2026? Feb 05 $61 −$58 -95%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 4, 2026? Feb 05 $9 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 05 $5 $0 -0%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 3, 2026? Feb 05 $63 −$11 -17%
US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026? Feb 05 $54 $0 -0%
Kings vs. Golden Knights Feb 05 $4 $0 -2%
Spread: Magic (-11.5) Feb 05 $10 −$1 -6%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 05 $8 $0 -3%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 05 $3 $0 -1%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 05 $41 −$1 -2%
Valorant: VARREL vs Gen.G Esports (BO3) - VCT Pacific Kickoff Playoffs Feb 05 $20 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 05 $5 $0 -8%
Will Trump say "Transgender" this week? (February 8) Feb 05 $16 +$1 +3%
Will XRP dip to $1.40 in February? Feb 05 $9 +$1 +11%
International T20 Series: Oman vs Zimbabwe (Game 1) Feb 05 $71 −$3 -4%
Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) Feb 05 $5 $0 -2%
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 05 $10 $0 -2%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 05 $50 −$1 -1%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Feb 05 $10 $0 -4%
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi Feb 05 $1 $0 -1%
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 05 $8 $0 -1%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Carabao Cup? Feb 05 $1 $0 -4%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 05 $1 $0 -1%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Feb 05 $1 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1729 history records