Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:09:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

22
0x2241…9f00
other · 111 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$14 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$14 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$24
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses38 / 71
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)109 / 111
History coverage481d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%
Chart Positions 2 History 109 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$0
14 days+$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $24 $23 −$0 (-2%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31? No 91¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 27¢ 23¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $42 −$1 -3%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $38 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $5 $0 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $36 +$2 +5%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $39 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 08 $72 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 08 $41 −$1 -2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 06 $36 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 04 $40 +$1 +2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 01 $1 $0 -4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $36 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 27 $78 +$1 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 26 $72 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $64 −$1 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 25 $38 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $42 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $42 −$1 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $43 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 20 $38 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 19 $7 −$1 -14%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 19 $4 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 18 $106 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 18 $44 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 17 $6 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 15 $36 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 15 $71 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $36 $0 -0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $1 $0 +28%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $129 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $48 $0 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $45 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $3 $0 -3%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $38 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 24 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $39 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 20 $11 −$1 -8%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 20 $39 $0 +1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $46 −$1 -2%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 13 $1 $0 -3%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 13 $45 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 12 $7 $0 -1%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $44 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $40 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $40 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $28 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $41 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $37 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 07 $45 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $45 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 32% −$4
other 29% +$1
politics 21% −$1
sports 10% −$11
crypto 3% $0
tech 2% $0
finance 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $24 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 73¢ $41 3h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 75¢ $42 7h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $4 14h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $34 14h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $38 16h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 22h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 24h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $38 29h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 75¢ $36 31h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $39 37h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $39 39h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $3 5d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $29 6d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $8 6d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $37 6d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $33 6d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $36 6d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $36 7d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $36 8d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 8d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 8d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 8d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $16 9d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $15 9d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $9 9d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 44¢ $40 9d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 12d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 16d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.4% -9.9% 29% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 26 -0.6% -10.0% 35% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 59 -0.3% -9.8% 27% 2% -9.7%
all 109 -1.0% -10.4% 35% 4% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 4% -10.0%
10% -19.0% 3% -18.6%
15% -26.8% 1% -26.4%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.34 · official $23.31 · 491 history records