Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:50:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
22 0x2240…e11a sports 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$157 (-7%) realized −$153 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate54%13W / 11L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$547now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$50
other 42% +$90
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +2.3% -7.5% 54% 42% -4.5%
≤30d 24 +2.3% -7.5% 54% 42% -4.5%
≤90d 24 +2.3% -7.5% 54% 42% -4.5%
all 24 +2.3% -7.5% 54% 42% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 42% -4.5%
10% -16.3% 33% -13.7%
15% -24.4% 29% -22.0%
20% -31.8% 21% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$44 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$547
Realized−$153
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses13 / 11
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions6
Markets (closed)24 / 36
History coverage7d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Over 62¢ 62¢ $230 $228 −$2 (-1%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $140 $139 −$1 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Under 41¢ 40¢ $110 $109 −$1 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Yes 62¢ 62¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $26 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $103 −$29 -28%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 −$18 -89%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $203 −$127 -62%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $300 +$10 +3%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$12 +41%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $102 +$98 +97%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $41 −$40 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $41 +$153 +373%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $101 +$38 +38%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $19 −$19 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $52 +$8 +16%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 AND Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $77 +$197 +257%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $31 +$7 +23%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$3 +57%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 +$4 +175%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 +$1 +3%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $40 43m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $30 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Curaçao win on 2026-06- BUY 83¢ $101 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $26 1h
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $141 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $112 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $202 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 11h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes $5 11h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $67 11h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes $2 11h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 18¢ $76 12h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 12h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 13h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $203 14h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 69¢ $69 15h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 97¢ $300 16h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY 70¢ $30 24h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $102 26h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $102 26h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $41 26h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $19 38h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 21¢ $41 39h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 10¢ $31 39h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 39h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 72¢ $101 39h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 86¢ $52 47h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? SELL Yes 50¢ $38 2d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 40¢ $31 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 AND Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY 27¢ $77 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $546.71 · official $646.73 · 57 history records