Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:40:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
22 0x2240…c93e other 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$7 (+4%) realized +$6 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%4W / 5L
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% +$38
sports 9% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-35.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -28.2% -35.0% 44% 44% +4.0%
≤30d 9 -28.2% -35.0% 44% 44% +4.0%
≤90d 9 -28.2% -35.0% 44% 44% +4.0%
all 9 -28.2% -35.0% 44% 44% +4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.0% 44% +4.0%
10% -41.2% 44% -5.9%
15% -46.9% 22% -15.0%
20% -52.1% 22% -23.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt +15% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$5 · ×2.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.74 per $1 lost it wins $1.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 83¢ 84¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 81¢ 82¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $15 +$8 +52%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $40 +$11 +27%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $13 +$17 +139%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 23 $40 +$11 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 78¢ $40 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 3h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 3h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 4h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? SELL Yes 100¢ $52 4h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 77¢ $40 4h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 6h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 7h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 7h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $20 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $30 8h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 9h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 9h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $13 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.91 · official $50.91 (match) · 21 history records