Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:32:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x2238…5111 crypto 86 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (60 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,170 (+17%) realized +$3,170 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate29%25W / 61L
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$214per market
Trades / day59.9pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$3,308
other 3% −$500
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (60 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 86 -10.4% -18.9% 29% 27% +4.6%
≤30d 86 -10.4% -18.9% 29% 27% +4.6%
≤90d 86 -10.4% -18.9% 29% 27% +4.6%
all 86 -10.4% -18.9% 29% 27% +4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover59.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.9% 27% +4.6%
10% ← realistic here -26.7% 26% -5.4%
15% -33.8% 26% -14.5%
20% -40.3% 22% -22.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$567 vs −$186 · ×3.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,170
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses25 / 61
Open positions0
Markets (closed)86 / 86
History coverage6d
Avg bet$214
Trades / day59.9
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 86 Trades
no open positions (52 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 19 $132 −$132 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 19 $136 −$136 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 19 $264 −$250 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 19 $138 −$130 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 19 $106 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 19 $111 −$111 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 19 $222 −$210 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 19 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 19 $313 +$3,634 +1159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 19 $210 +$586 +278%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 19 $379 −$357 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 19 $255 −$240 -94%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $513 −$500 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $160 −$160 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $212 −$212 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $210 +$557 +265%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $409 −$387 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $169 −$163 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $266 −$250 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $314 +$2,272 +724%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $319 −$300 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $212 −$200 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $212 −$200 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $310 +$1,746 +564%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $211 −$200 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $212 −$200 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $209 +$13 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $317 +$640 +202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $263 −$250 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $183 −$173 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $49 −$47 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $194 −$184 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $160 −$150 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $211 +$39 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $317 −$300 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $317 −$300 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $314 −$314 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $415 −$208 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $210 −$200 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $259 −$245 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $210 +$123 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $374 +$454 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $210 −$200 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $314 +$528 +168%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $314 +$130 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $329 −$310 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $427 +$1,032 +242%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $747 −$229 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $164 −$160 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $32 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $64 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $32 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $53 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $106 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $106 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $32 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $106 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $106 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $36 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $53 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 367 history records