Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:52:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
22 0x2232…346a sports 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 548d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$285 (+79%) realized +$285 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$335
7 days+$286
14 days+$286
30 days+$286
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$335
other 22% −$49
crypto 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +23.1% +11.3% 62% 62% +67.8%
≤30d 8 +23.1% +11.3% 62% 62% +67.8%
≤90d 8 +23.1% +11.3% 62% 62% +67.8%
all 9 +9.4% -1.0% 56% 56% +65.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.0% 56% +65.3%
10% -10.5% 56% +49.5%
15% -19.2% 56% +35.0%
20% -27.1% 56% +21.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 82% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +85% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +83% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$16 · ×4.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.32 per $1 lost it wins $5.32
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

548d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized+$285
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage548d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Over 56¢ 56¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 +$19 +93%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $204 +$284 +140%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 +$23 +114%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $10 +$8 +84%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$11 +55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Ethereum all time high in 2024? Dec 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $20 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $39 20h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $20 25h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $43 44h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $204 47h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 95¢ $19 47h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 51¢ $10 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $20 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $20 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 4d
Ethereum all time high in 2024? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 548d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.82 · official $19.82 (match) · 15 history records