Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:46:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x2231…952b crypto 149 markets active 0h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$46 (-6%) realized −$46 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate64%95W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 42d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% −$38
sports 19% −$1
other 6% +$1
weather 3% −$10
world 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -4.0% -13.1% 78% 13% -13.6%
≤30d 46 -4.0% -13.1% 78% 13% -13.6%
≤90d 149 -8.5% -17.2% 64% 11% -15.5%
all 149 -8.5% -17.2% 64% 11% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 11% -15.5%
10% -25.1% 6% -23.6%
15% -32.4% 5% -31.0%
20% -39.0% 3% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses95 / 54
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)149 / 149
History coverage42d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 149 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +3%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +3%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $22 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $22 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +7%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +4%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -3%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +40%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 -2%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +39%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $1 $0 +21%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $2 $0 -18%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $2 +$1 +32%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 $0 -5%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +37%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET May 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 4, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 08 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 4, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET May 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET May 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $20 27m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $20 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $20 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $20 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $20 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $20 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $22 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $22 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $22 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $20 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $20 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $19 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $20 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $19 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $3 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $3 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 423 history records