Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:50:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
22 0x2230…c3b7 sports 82 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$718 (+3%) realized +$831 · open −$113
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate50%37W / 37L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$332per market
Trades / day29.1pace
Fees−$302est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$2,402now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$39
other 6% +$517
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 -1.0% -10.4% 50% 49% -7.5%
≤30d 74 -1.0% -10.4% 50% 49% -7.5%
≤90d 74 -1.0% -10.4% 50% 49% -7.5%
all 74 -1.0% -10.4% 50% 49% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.4% 49% -7.5%
10% ← realistic here -19.0% 43% -16.3%
15% -26.8% 32% -24.4%
20% -34.0% 24% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -22% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$181 vs −$165 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$2,402
Realized+$831
Unrealized−$113
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses37 / 37
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$302
Open positions8
Markets (closed)74 / 82
History coverage4d
Avg bet$332
Trades / day29.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs KT Rolster Challengers 49¢ 52¢ $200 $210 +$10 (+5%)
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Game Master 38¢ 38¢ $198 $200 +$3 (+1%)
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Hynek Barton Hynek Barton 37¢ 38¢ $136 $138 +$2 (+1%)
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Game Master 38¢ 40¢ $95 $101 +$6 (+7%)
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova Katerina Siniakova 35¢ 34¢ $36 $35 −$1 (-1%)
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Donna Vekic 54¢ 55¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+1%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Baltimore Orioles 51¢ $148 $14 −$134 (-90%)
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Chicago White Sox 60¢ 80¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 17 $419 +$90 +22%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $848 +$169 +20%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos Jun 16 $39 +$11 +27%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Renata Zarazua Jun 16 $178 +$33 +18%
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers Jun 16 $48 −$47 -98%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 16 $349 −$342 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $406 +$111 +27%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 Jun 16 $234 −$230 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $107 +$78 +73%
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg Jun 15 $249 −$246 -99%
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee Jun 15 $292 +$20 +7%
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas Jun 15 $587 +$161 +27%
Bu vs. Virtanen: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 15 $528 −$10 -2%
Nottingham 2: Yunchaokete Bu vs Otto Virtanen Jun 15 $530 −$10 -2%
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano Jun 15 $157 +$152 +97%
Royan: Pierre Delage vs Svyatoslav Gulin Jun 15 $429 +$154 +36%
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia Jun 15 $64 +$328 +510%
Brescia: Kathinka von Deichmann vs Anastasiia Sobolieva Jun 15 $277 +$203 +73%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Rafael Jodar Jun 15 $955 −$283 -30%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $141 +$103 +73%
Spread: Hurricanes (-2.5) Jun 15 $136 +$146 +107%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $1,281 +$754 +59%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $64 −$63 -99%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $10 $0 -4%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $1,459 +$578 +40%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 14 $921 −$905 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $16 +$36 +226%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs G-Time (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 14 $24 −$4 -16%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs G-Time - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $61 −$11 -18%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Jun 14 $217 −$213 -98%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $41 +$14 +34%
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco Jun 14 $27 +$25 +96%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $248 −$244 -98%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $27 +$13 +50%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $53 −$52 -99%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $56 $0 -0%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 14 $312 +$280 +90%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $70 −$69 -98%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $26 +$11 +44%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 14 $309 +$384 +124%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions Jun 14 $17 −$17 -98%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins Jun 14 $19 −$19 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Anastasia Potapova Jun 14 $260 −$256 -99%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $123 −$120 -98%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $92 −$90 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $294 +$243 +83%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $275 +$236 +86%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Jun 14 $98 +$22 +23%
Piratas de Quebradillas vs. Capitanes de Arecibo Jun 14 $100 +$101 +101%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $5,404 −$623 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 51¢ $151 36m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 49¢ $203 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 82¢ $142 2h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 82¢ $277 2h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Game Master 38¢ $105 8h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner BUY Game Master 38¢ $97 8h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Game Master 38¢ $97 8h
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Hynek Barton BUY Hynek Barton 37¢ $138 8h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Katerina Siniakova 35¢ $36 10h
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos BUY NC Dinos 78¢ $39 16h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers BUY Kia Tigers 16¢ $36 16h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers BUY Kia Tigers 17¢ $12 17h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics BUY Marton Fucsovics 34¢ $349 18h
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Renata Zarazua BUY Linda Noskova 84¢ $178 22h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 45¢ $234 25h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 78¢ $406 25h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 57¢ $1 27h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 57¢ $2 27h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 57¢ $104 27h
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg BUY Max Hans Rehberg 61¢ $249 28h
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee SELL Philip Henning 76¢ $312 28h
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee BUY Philip Henning 70¢ $292 28h
Bu vs. Virtanen: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 51¢ $528 30h
Nottingham 2: Yunchaokete Bu vs Otto Virtanen BUY Otto Virtanen 51¢ $530 30h
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas BUY Fenerbahce 78¢ $587 34h
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Rafael Jodar BUY Rafael Jodar 72¢ $304 38h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 47¢ $23 2d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $21 2d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 31¢ $10 2d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 31¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,402.17 · official $2,393.88 (match) · 172 history records