Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:42:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x222d…bbd9 sports 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 559d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$32 (+5%) realized +$32 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate4%1W / 26L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$32
other 9% $0
politics 8% $0
world 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 27 -6.6% -15.5% 4% 4% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 4% -5.2%
10% -23.6% 4% -14.3%
15% -31.0% 4% -22.5%
20% -37.8% 4% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$0 · ×1216.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×81.09 per $1 lost it wins $81.09
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

559d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses1 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage559d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $9 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $11 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 24 $12 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 28 $12 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 11 $9 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 18 $11 $0 -0%
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 21 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 14 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 11 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 23 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Crystal Palace wins the Premier League? May 15 $96 $0 -0%
Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the UEFA Champions League? May 15 $0 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? May 14 $1 $0 +0%
Wolverhampton Wanderers win the Premier League? May 14 $59 $0 -0%
Oilers vs. Sharks Apr 17 $62 +$32 +52%
Will Spain win Eurovision 2025? Apr 15 $6 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in April? Apr 13 $1 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2025? Mar 28 $1 $0 -2%
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Feb 12 $1 $0 +0%
West Ham United wins the Premier League? Jan 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Dinamo Zagreb win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 18 $0 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 16 $0 $0 -29%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 12 $0 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 03 $298 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $9 1h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $9 1h
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $11 22d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $11 22d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $12 52d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $12 58d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $10 61d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $10 61d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $12 80d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $12 82d
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $9 96d
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $9 96d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $11 117d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $11 117d
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 99¢ $10 146d
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $10 146d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 100¢ $11 183d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 183d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 97¢ $12 216d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 98¢ $12 216d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $12 235d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $12 235d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 97¢ $12 267d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 97¢ $12 267d
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $0 293d
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $1 293d
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes $1 293d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $1 331d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $0 331d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes $1 331d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 78 history records