Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:37:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
22 0x222c…25cf other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$226 (-41%) realized −$226 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -64% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -69% what you keep after slip
Net edge-69%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$137per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% −$238
sports 18% −$97
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-67.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -63.8% -67.3% 0% 0% -64.9%
≤30d 4 -63.8% -67.3% 0% 0% -64.9%
≤90d 4 -63.8% -67.3% 0% 0% -64.9%
all 4 -63.8% -67.3% 0% 0% -64.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -67.3% 0% -64.9%
10% -70.4% 0% -68.3%
15% -73.3% 0% -71.4%
20% -75.9% 0% -74.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -61% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -64% · $-wt -61% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$84 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$226
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 4
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$137
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $97 −$97 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $105 −$9 -8%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $246 −$141 -57%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $99 −$89 -90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $97 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 40¢ $97 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 42¢ $105 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 30¢ $105 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $246 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 2¢ $10 4h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $99 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 8 history records