Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:57:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
22 0x222b…d3fd sports 132 markets active 7d ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$474 (+8%) realized +$508 · open −$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate55%65W / 53L
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$391now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$230
14 days+$311
30 days+$466
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$385
world 24% −$167
politics 17% +$71
other 5% +$33
culture 2% +$71
tech 1% +$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +96.8% +78.1% 82% 82% +57.7%
≤30d 118 +7.4% -2.8% 55% 51% -1.4%
≤90d 118 +7.4% -2.8% 55% 51% -1.4%
all 118 +7.4% -2.8% 55% 51% -1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.8% 51% -1.4%
10% -12.1% 44% -10.8%
15% -20.6% 40% -19.4%
20% -28.4% 35% -27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$31 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$391
Realized+$508
Unrealized−$34
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses65 / 53
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions14
Markets (closed)118 / 132
History coverage24d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 67¢ 88¢ $73 $96 +$23 (+32%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 66¢ 88¢ $57 $76 +$19 (+33%)
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? Yes 31¢ 31¢ $43 $43 −$1 (-1%)
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? Yes 74¢ 78¢ $27 $29 +$1 (+5%)
Will USD reach 1.9M Iranian rials by June 30? No 53¢ 94¢ $16 $28 +$12 (+77%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 77¢ 54¢ $40 $28 −$12 (-31%)
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30? No 67¢ 84¢ $21 $26 +$5 (+25%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 50¢ 52¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+5%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 30¢ 18¢ $22 $14 −$9 (-38%)
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? Yes 81¢ 16¢ $61 $12 −$49 (-81%)
Will Trump praise Delcy Rodriguez by June 30? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 48¢ 84¢ $5 $8 +$4 (+76%)
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? Yes 21¢ 3¢ $9 $1 −$7 (-85%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 37¢ 2¢ $23 $1 −$22 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $18 +$25 +138%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 14 $20 +$72 +354%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $21 +$14 +67%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 12 $22 +$30 +140%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $40 +$16 +42%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $46 +$33 +72%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 11 $18 +$17 +90%
Spread: Knicks (-12.5) Jun 11 $56 +$14 +24%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 10 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 10 $30 −$30 -99%
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in May? Jun 10 $17 +$59 +338%
Lyon: Matteo Martineau vs Mickael Kaouk Jun 10 $41 +$8 +19%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 09 $18 −$18 -99%
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) Jun 09 $20 +$16 +76%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 09 $28 −$28 -99%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 08 $10 +$10 +93%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 08 $12 +$14 +119%
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 08 $30 +$23 +79%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 08 $20 +$42 +216%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $33 +$35 +105%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 07 $15 −$14 -99%
Libema Open: Mia Pohankova vs Clara Tauson Jun 07 $34 −$34 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $36 +$20 +57%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $42 −$24 -57%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 07 $11 −$11 -99%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 07 $15 −$14 -98%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $29 −$29 -100%
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Paula Badosa Jun 07 $29 −$29 -99%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 07 $12 +$11 +90%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $14 +$5 +32%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $18 +$11 +65%
Maja Chwalinska vs. Mirra Andreeva: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $37 +$16 +44%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 07 $41 +$32 +76%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $35 −$34 -99%
Makarska: Elina Avanesyan vs Darja Semenistaja Jun 06 $17 −$16 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Ariane Carnelossi vs. Ketlen Souza (Women's Strawweig Jun 06 $8 −$8 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $8 −$8 -98%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 06 $38 −$37 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 05 $16 −$16 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 05 $19 −$19 -99%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 05 $10 +$12 +124%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026? Jun 05 $61 +$14 +24%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 05 $103 +$26 +26%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? Jun 04 $99 +$67 +67%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 04 $10 $0 +0%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 04 $13 −$13 -98%
Mensik vs. Fonseca: Match O/U 38.5 Jun 03 $47 +$51 +109%
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 03 $98 +$21 +21%
Map Handicap: HERO (-1.5) vs Gaimin Gladiators (+1.5) Jun 02 $11 −$11 -98%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 02 $35 −$34 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 50¢ $1 6d
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 50¢ $6 6d
Spread: Knicks (-12.5) BUY Spurs 80¢ $56 6d
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 50¢ $2 6d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 41¢ $22 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $40 6d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $21 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $30 6d
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 50¢ $10 6d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 59¢ $21 6d
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) BUY Spurs 52¢ $18 6d
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY Young Ninjas 53¢ $18 7d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 54¢ $28 7d
Lyon: Matteo Martineau vs Mickael Kaouk BUY Matteo Martineau 84¢ $8 8d
Lyon: Matteo Martineau vs Mickael Kaouk BUY Matteo Martineau 84¢ $34 8d
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri BUY Yes 81¢ $61 8d
Will Trump praise Delcy Rodriguez by June 30? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 8d
Will Trump praise Delcy Rodriguez by June 30? BUY Yes 34¢ $6 8d
Will Trump praise Delcy Rodriguez by June 30? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 8d
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Leylah Fernandez 53¢ $15 9d
Libema Open: Mia Pohankova vs Clara Tauson BUY Clara Tauson 71¢ $34 9d
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Magda Linette 55¢ $30 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 31¢ $18 9d
Will USD reach 1.9M Iranian rials by June 30? BUY No 53¢ $16 9d
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres BUY New York Mets 51¢ $10 9d
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 55¢ $11 9d
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY LYON 45¢ $12 9d
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Washington Nationals 45¢ $15 9d
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) BUY Spurs 56¢ $20 9d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY No 61¢ $29 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $391.16 · official $391.79 (match) · 298 history records